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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Trader who wrote (15956)	12/26/1997 12:53:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Respond to of 50167

Tom, <<have a wonderful vacation.>> thanks. <<But what we need to keep in mind is that if the companies with exposure to SE Asia are not able to figure out the impact with any level of certainty, to what extent can analysts--who after all rely substantially on the input of the companies that they follow--really be able to forecast with any greater accuracy.>> Good point. An analyst who doesn't go beyond what the company tells him/her is by no means a good analyst. Unfortunately, we seem to have so many of them these days. However, there are some real smart analysts out there who can figure things out much ahead of the company insiders. By rallying AMAT to 108, the market made Gus Richards of H&Q look like an idiot after his downgrade of AMAT in the mid 60's (~33 post split.) Some of his points were dead-on! He is smart but his timing was off. So, should he be fired? On the other hand, we now have analysts downgrading AMAT at prices much below where he first downgraded. Do they have a clue? I think some do and some don't. But, they might have been caught-up in the "fear of missing out" or involved in plain old cheating through downgrades by word of mouth. When I talked to Applied circa April 96, they vehimently denied of any order cancellations or pushouts. They said business was good. A few weeks later they changed the story (in July 96.) I see a repeat of that soon. In November they said things were looking good. Perhaps they will change the tune in Jan. In the usual way, they announced quite a few new orders - including that of Hyundai - along with last Q earnings. A few short weeks later, Hyundai announces a delay of fab in Ireland (?) Does that mean AMAT is clueless? I don't think so. I am sure they will not tell you most of the negaives that CAN happen. When the negative HAS to be disclosed, they will. By that time, it will be too late. BWDIK? -Mohan