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Technology Stocks : Applied Magnetics Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Earl who wrote (11137)	12/26/1997 3:13:00 PM
From: LK2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12298

Don, you've been told plenty of times that you should take any information you get from Crisman with a (large) grain of salt. Apparently, you find it hard to believe what people like Todd (T Bowl) tell you about APM. Why you think that the January quarter for APM will be a >>blow out<< is hard for me to understand. Personally, I don't know what the stock price will do, or what the company will earn (or lose) in 1998. My current belief is that APM earnings will either drop sharply or turn negative unless they can get new business to replace the TFI heads they currently sell. If you're really putting money into APM stock, and not BSing, then you should get someone you trust to read APM's financial reports and see if they come up with the same ideas that you do (about why APM will make a lot of money). It would help if the person is familiar with the stock market and with disk drive stocks. To me, it sounds like you're either a little confused, or a little desperate to justify why APM is a good 'value'. -LK PS. We are still in a bull market, even though stocks like APM, QNTM, and WDC make it look like a bear market. Just think what could happen if we really get into a bear market. Or better yet, forget about bull and bear, and try to understand what is happening to APM and the disk drive sector. Try to get it clear in your own mind, and then check with somebody else, that invests in stocks, to see if what this other person believes fits with your information.

To: Don Earl who wrote (11137)	12/26/1997 7:20:00 PM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12298

Ahhh Don, I remain hopefull that you are correct but also remain convinced that we are in for a little more down news before the up begins. I am assuming that we are talking APM (and disk drives for that matter). I belive that inventory work off and difficulties with MR are deeper then we are currently led to believe. Also, you said <The pico form factor is estimated to double yeilds>. While it is true that the pico slider allows 14,700 sliders per six inch wafer to be fabricated vs. 8,400 of the "nanoslider" this doesant necessarily mean a 50% improvement in yields. In fact, the pico production throughout the industry will probably experience a yield hit as the industry learns how to handle them. They are substantially smaller (50% the size of a nanoslider) and the resulting difficulty in handling at HGA fab and HSA (head stack) fab is non-trivial. In addition non variation in sputtering (wafer fab) becomes more critical as does the process steps of polish, slicing, row bonding, edge blend, etc. All these steps become a little more dicey with the diminutive pico slider. By the way, Peripheral Research Corp. in Santa Barbara has published a report that states that Pico sliders were approx. 37% of head production (all suppliers) in 1997 and estimates that they will represent 67% of total production in 1998. It is just one more transition faced by APM and the industry at large. Want a quick inventory on what they are all wrestling with? Transition to MR?GMR, transition to Pico Slider form factor, integration of semi wireless suspensions, transition to lower flying heights, and transition to lower stiction-friction characteristics requiring new edge blend and air bearing designs. In addition, on the business side: transition of the industry to a BTO model, increased competition for fewer accounts, and the Asian economic dilemma, (is it good for them or bad for them?). Like the old joke goes...gotta be a pony in that pile somewhere. I am looking for the pony! Best, Stitch Best, Stitch