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Technology Stocks : INVX Innovex Comdex Winner !! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: R.Lui who wrote (1944)	12/26/1997 5:10:00 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 3029

how reliable are the past estimates from s & p..... if they have had good accuracy in the past re: invx....then there's real value to the information... if not....then i would suggest they are taking a WAG pretty much like everyone else.... (wild ass guess) Joel

To: R.Lui who wrote (1944)	12/26/1997 5:12:00 PM
From: Kurthend	Respond to of 3029

I have not seen the S&P report. D. Keller seems to be comfortable with 48 or 49 cents a share for the dec. qtr. (10% increase over a year ago but a little less than last qtr-dec qtr is traditionally their worst qtr). RE: S&P Report cutting the eps for FY98 from $2.5 to $2.3 and some of my thoughts; 1. TFI/MR mix is now 65%. If the hdd makers sell no more units/heads than last year (FY97) and the mix goes to approximately 100% then simple math would mean that INVX would bring in approximately 21% more revenue than last year (I am unsure as to the MR/TFI mix from last Dec qtr). My one disclaimer would be if INVX, due to pressure, lowered their price. 2. Maybe there is more competition out there and cutting into INVX's share of the market. 3. INVX stated that they expect/hope their Iconovex Division to start showing a profit by April through their joint venture with Smart Solutions. The amount of the profit is unknown. 4. The Innomedica division (I BELIEVE?) should also start showing a profit in FY98. ** These 2 divisions only accounted for about 2% of sales in FY98 so any increase in earnings would have to be significant to affect the company by anything more than a penny of so. 5. Their LPC division's consisted of only approximately 11% of the total of sales last FY, but the ramp-up of HIF this year should provide a healthy dose of extra revenue (especially if the HIF is accepted by the flip chip industry on a wide scale). 6. I don't understand the no growth from the S&P report unless they predict the whole market hitting the fan, there are still a lot of hdd's in inventory, the rate of growth in the hdd induystry has been vastly overestimated by all the sources that I have read, there are more competitors out there that will compete with INVX next year, or the pricing pressure on INVX is too much. Anyway, these are my thoughts. Hope it helps.

To: R.Lui who wrote (1944)	12/26/1997 8:18:00 PM
From: Robert T. Quasius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3029

The stock is still selling at less than 10X FY98 earnings, which is rather a cheap valuation for a company with INVX's management and growth prospects.

To: R.Lui who wrote (1944)	12/27/1997 11:49:00 PM
From: Douglas V. Fant	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3029

R. Lui, Greetings and Happy Holidays! My guess is that we will get some downward earnings revisions on tech stocks for a few months. The unknown amount of the revisions is probably what is keeping folks away from a tech stocks generally. However INVX is a leader in its niche- and expanding into flip chip package assembly too. So they are thinking ahead. I'm guessing that when the "smoke clears" INVX will have an earnings estimate in the $2.00/share range. So does that justify slamming INVX about 45% on its stock price? probably not- but it will take a while to get the engine runing"full steam" on an upward course. So like everyone else, I'll try to buy additional INVX shares over the next six months whenever we have doom and gloom days in the markets.... Sincerely, Doug F.