Unfortunately the Wall Street Journal does not post historical data going back beyond 2007. In lieu of that I will instead post the commentary from Briefing.com that I copied and pasted here on October 10th, 2002. It's a lot different than what we read from last Friday.
Message 18100013
From Briefing.com: General Commentary - Yesterday we noted that the Nasdaq was probing for a bottom near 1100. Based on today's broad-based gains it looks like that floor will hold, and that the index has begun a corrective advance. How long and how far we run will depend on a variety of factors, but if we can build on the gain tomorrow the market will have taken the first steps toward changing the extremely bearish mood on the street.
Helping to alter the bearish sentiment on Thursday was the better-than-expected earnings report from Yahoo! (YHOO). Actually seemed like old times the way the Internet stocks paced the advance. But this is now and that was then. Then a gain like the one we witnessed today would have spawned a violent and possibly prolonged advance. Now if the sector forges upward for more than two days it will be a big deal.
Nevertheless, the YHOO report was significant in that it spooked the shorts. A few more decent reports with anything other than dour guidance and the bears will begin to rush for cover. Short squeeze would certainly help to underpin any recovery.
But, alas, if the recovery is to be at all meaningful from an intermediate to long-term perspective, then there has to be more behind the move then a temporary surge in short-covering. There will have to be evidence that the economic recovery is gaining momentum; signs that business investment will actually begin to increase; increased clarity on timing of earnings recovery; and resolution to the US/Iraq showdown.
In the meantime, traders will be watching to see if short-covering and technical buying can propel the Nasdaq through initial resistance at 1196.58 (20-day moving average). Secondary resistance is at 1269.
Robert Walberg
6:00PM Thursday After Hours price changes vs 4pm ET levels: The after hours action is more subdued than what transpired during the regular session. Nevertheless, some stocks have continued to press higher following encouraging news on the earnings front.
Powerwave Technologies (PWAV 3.55 +0.27) and Echelon (00C0 10.35 +0.71), meanwhile, both reported Q3 earnings that came in ahead of the Multex consensus estimates. Juniper Networks (JNPR 4.85 -0.33) posted an in-line loss of $0.02 per share for its third quarter. On its conference call, JNPR said it sees a Q4 pro-forma loss of $0.01 per share and revenue of about $152 mln. The former is in-line with the current consensus estimate, but the latter is slightly less than what analysts were expecting.
5:47PM KLA-Tencor to repurchase up to 5 mln shares (KLAC) 27.23 +1.08: Company announced issuance of authorization to repurchase up to 5 mln shares of its common stock; action is part of continuing, systematic plan aimed at offsetting dilution created by employee stock option and stock purchase plans.
4:42PM Juniper edges higher on guidance : JNPR +0.01 now vs the 4 pm ET close to 5.19.
4:38PM Juniper Networks guides in line for Q4 (JNPR) 5.18 +0.58: -- Update -- Sees Q4 net loss of $0.01 per share -- Multex consensus estimate is for a net loss of $0.01 per share.
4:36PM Juniper Reaction : Networking sector trading down modestly on the Juniper report. Prices vs 4 pm ET close -- JNPR -0.32, CSCO -0.05, EXTR -0.08, FDRY -0.01
4:20PM Juniper Networks reports in-line Q3 (JNPR) 5.18 +0.58: Reports Q3 (Sep) loss of $0.02 per share, in line with the Multex consensus of ($0.02); revenues fell 24.6% year/year to $152.0 mln vs the $151.3 mln consensus.
4:08PM Powerwave beats by two cents (PWAV) 3.28 +0.53: Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.02 per share, $0.02 better than the Multex consensus of $0.00; revenues rose 41.2% year/year to $91.3 mln vs the $88.1 mln consensus; customer diversification for the third quarter of 2002 includes Nortel Networks (NT) accounting for approximately 67% of revenues and Nokia (NOK) accounting for 10% or more of revenues.
Close Dow +247.68 at 7533.95, S&P +27.15 at 803.92, Nasdaq +49.25 at 1163.37: No, your eyes don't deceive you... Those are plus signs next to each of the major indices and they precede some sizable point gains... There were several catalysts driving the gains, and ironically enough, the sell-off shortly after the start of trading was one of them...
The other compelling factors included the better than expected earnings news from Yahoo! (YHOO 12.27 +2.29) and Aetna (AET 36.80 +5.11), better than expected initial claims data for the week of Oct. 5, a sense the market was oversold, and the resilience of the retail sector following a number of disappointing earnings updates that came in the wake of some generally weak same-store sales reports for September... The retail sector, though, got off to a lousy start and was a driving force behind the early sell-off... That sell-off wiped out the modest gains posted at the open and knocked the S&P 500 below its July low (775.68) in short order... In fact, when that low was violated, the pace of selling activity quickened... The Dow, for its part, was down nearly 90 points just before 10:00 ET...
The selling activity, however, ended almost as quickly as it began as buyers stepped up to the plate in exuberant fashion, driven by a sense that the market was oversold... Before long, the Dow, and the other major indices, were back in positive territory, and for the remainder of the session, they didn't spend much time looking back... Led by a hard-charging technology sector, and broad-based bargain hunting activity in beaten-down areas like financial services, utilities, auto, basic materials, and retail, the market made a solid rebound...
Short-covering activity, undoubtedly, was a factor in the rebound effort, but the weakness in the Treasury market suggested the equity market was benefitting from some asset allocation trades... Whatever the case may have been, buyers were in firm control of the action today... Their influence was perhaps best reflected in the fact that up volume outpaced down volume by nearly a 7-to-1 ratio at the Nasdaq and roughly a 4-to-1 ratio at the NYSE... From an industry standpoint, the few laggards of note included the gold, restaurant, and casino groups... Within the Dow, every component with the exception of two-- Philip Morris (MO 36.17 -0.46) and Coca-Cola (KO 51.46 -0.17)-- ended the day with a gain...
Volume was relatively heavy with the NYSE trading 2.05 bln shares and the Nasdaq trading 1.83 bln shares... The volume totals were unusual in that volume at the Nasdaq typically outpaces volume at the NYSE... DJTA +4.2%, DJUA +8.2%, DOT +7.1%, Nasdaq 100 +5.2%, Russell 2000 +2.8%, SOX +6.2%, S&P Midcap 400 +4.2%, NYSE Adv/Dec 2046/1236, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2053/1298
2:43PM Chart Watch: INTC : A chart pattern we have been highlighting over the last several weeks for tech names such as CSCO and IBM has worked well in terms of playing the breakout.Intel(INTC 14.16) falls into this category as it slumped as much as 18% below it Aug low. The issue has, however, been on the move aggressively to the upside today.
We highlighted an intraday breakout on an In Play update this morning and now from a daily perspective the issue has approached a key resistance level. The barrier of interest here is the 20 day ema (blue line on the chart) which comes into play today at 14.57.
Note that this average did an excellent job of capping rally attempts each and every time since late August. During the current slip back off the high (14.42) will be watching support at today's intraday breakout point (13.80). A failure to work through the moving average and a run back through this support today would raise questions about the ability to sustain the current rally attempt.
A breakout above the 20 day ema would initially target the bottom of the July/August trading range in the 15.69/15.82 area. From an intermediate term perspective will be watching the 50 day ema at 16.15 (purple line) which capped the advance in August. The top of the summer range comes in just below 20. -- Jim Schroeder, Briefing.com
2:58PM National Semi (NSM) 10.70 +0.08: Salomon Smith Barney cuts Q2 and Q3 ests and reduces their price target to $10 from $16 citing co's poor handset outlook; notes mgmt seems comfortable reiterating Q2 (Nov) guidance of rev "flat to down 5%," with the high-end of the range requiring a seasonal pickup in PC components, and the low-end corresponding to no meaningful PC pickup. Firm also suspects most of the components NSM will ship for the Christmas season have already been bought given the strong Taiwanese motherboard build in Q3 (+26%) and the initial build in Oct (+10%).
1:21PM Motorola (MOT) 9.08 +0.78: Stock bounces back 9% after falling 11% yesterday over concerns on co's repatriation of $3 bln in cash from overseas. Analysts defend MOT's liquidity and Q4 and 2003 forecasts: Goldman Sachs reiterated their belief cost-saving measures and job cuts should be enough to offset any cash concerns late yesterday, and today, UBS Warburg maintains their stance liquidity is not an issue for MOT. Firm puts Q3 EPS at EPS $0.13-0.14 and rates shares a Buy with an $18 price target.
12:51PM Qualcomm (QCOM) 29.68 +1.77: Shares have advanced over 6% in today's session due to upbeat commentary by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Goldman expects company to deliver strong Q402 results and provide upside guidance going forward; notes shares are trading below historical range; reiterates Recomm List rating; continues to favor QCOM among communication IC stocks. Separately, Morgan Stanley believes new product cycles and seasonal factors will drive strong 2H02; maintains Overweight rating.
12:47PM Yahoo! (YHOO) 12.03 +2.05: Company continues to top list of leading point gainers in today's session following last night's upside Q302 results of $0.05 vs. Multex consensus of $0.04 and encouraging Y02 guidance of revenues of $930-955 mln vs. consensus of $926 mln. Analysts' reactions are overwhelmingly positive, including upgrades by Merrill Lynch to BUY from Neutral; Deutsche Securities and Prudential to BUY from Hold; and reiterations of Outperform ratings by Salomon Smth Barney and Bear Stearns and Buy rating by Thomas Weisel. Firms cite continued strong performance, improving share in online advertising, and potential for upside future earnings as reasons for optimism, as shares advance 20.5% on upside earnings and upbeat commentaries.
12:30PM Market Internals : Up volume has steadily increased this morning to overtake down volume. The relative strength is being seen on the Nasdaq as Up volume leads there by almost 7-to-1... Probably the most intriguing statistic of the session is the phenomenal number of new lows that continue to be made. On the NYSE there are 522 of them, compared to 9 new highs; Nasdaq showing 325 new lows vs 7 highs.
12:44PM Near-Term Bottom? The price action is somewhat encouraging today as the major averages are actually posting notable intraday gains. The nature of today's move suggests the active trader would be well served to at least address the question of whether today's rally might be 'legitimate'. Put another way, might the current intraday move represent the beginning of the next leg higher?
We already described today's price action as 'encouraging'. That statement seems to hold water on its face, but what does it really mean -- the price action is encouraging? It means the averages are headed higher of course -- yet just as important is the manner in which the markets are managing their gains.
Total volume traded is notably heavy to this point as the NYSE has already surpassed the 1.0 billion share mark while the Nasdaq is currently just shy of 1 billion shares. Perhaps more importantly, the market internals are generating bullish reads behind today's strong volume. On the NYSE, advancing volume outpaces declining volume by a 2 to 1 margin while the same ratio is generating an extreme reading of 9 to 1 on the Nasdaq.
On a more granular level, we all know it has been difficult for the markets to rise when each day, several different 'legitimate names' are losing say 20% of their market value -- at times in a single tick. The annihilation of EMC on its recent earnings warning comes to mind in this vein. Well, today's rally is injecting something of the inverse element into the equation. A long list of formerly viable investments are carving out single-day gains ranging from 8% to 15% -- in the case of Yahoo! (YHOO +20.0%) and Network Associates (NET +25.6%) the gains are that much more substantial.
Those aren't exactly the kind of one-day losses you want to absorb if you're sitting on a short position. Yet it is the kind of price action that may embolden prospective longs currently riding the fence, and conversely, dissuade those shorts beginning to lose their commitment. Put another way, today's price action certainly carries the potential to serve as a shock to the current sentiment picture. Whether this shock qualifies as anything of significance on a longer-term basis remains to be seen.
Now in a piece written just yesterday, we identified Nasdaq 1,145 as a technical level of interest. The direct quote was in the final line -- 'For the time being, note that a clean closing break of the 1,145 area -- which represents the intraday high on the two previous sessions -- would modestly improve the very near-term tone.' For our purposes today, the phrase 'clean closing break of 1,145' begins to carry more significance. The Nasdaq has already touched an intraday high of 1,152 earlier in the session. If it would manage to close up towards the day's highs -- again, on strong volume -- this would constitute a bullish near-term development.
Does this mean the markets are going up tomorrow, and every subsequent day? Obviously not. Does it mean the indices won't make new multi-year lows at some point? Not necessarily. The main take away here is that near-term sentiment is likely to take a shift for the better if the indices can hold these intraday gains. If today's rally should fail, however, then we can all return to the strategy of mindlessly and indiscriminately shorting the averages. Stay tuned. -- Mike Ashbaugh, Briefing.com
10:42AM Intel short term alert (INTC) 13.75 +0.29: -- Technical -- Stock made repeated runs at the 13.80 area yesterday and has tested again this morning. Short term traders like to watch levels such as this as a trigger.
10:11AM Nasdaq Composite Intraday : -- Technical -- Jumps higher off the open but quickly reverses course and sets a fractional new multi-year low. Has bounced but need to see sustained follow through beyond 1120/22 to improve the very short term bias. Next resistance is at 1134 and this week's highs at 1144/1145. Failure leaves the index vulnerable with initial support at 1100 followed by the 1085/1075 area.
7:43AM Zarlink Semi upped to Sector Perform at CIBC on valuation (ZL) 1.37:
7:33AM Yahoo! upgraded at WR Hambrecht (YHOO) 9.98: WR Hambrecht upgrades to HOLD from Sell, saying mgmt is steadily building a healthier co as it diversifies its revenues, rebuilds its advertising franchise, and layers on new opportunities; modestly raises 2002-04 ests and raises price target to $10 from $8.
7:32AM Applied Micro upped to Mkt Outperform at Goldman (AMCC) 2.72: Goldman Sachs upgrades to MKT OUTPERFORM from Mkt Perform on what firm sees as an attractive valuation for a long-term survivor. While not making a call on the qtr and believes it to be relatively in line with a still challenging outlook, firm also believes downside risk is limited given that the mkt is already assuming negative enterprise value and is embedding more than four qtrs of cash burn. Assuming AMCC can achieve a similar 0.7x EV/sales multiple as its direct comps, believes stock could trend towards $4.00.
7:23AM Helix Tech reduces quarterly dividend to $0.04 from $0.08 (HELX) 7.48: Company cites the very uncertain business environment and the current lack of forward visibility in the semiconductor capital equipment market.
7:21AM Citigroup: cooperation between Grubman and investigators could be troublesome - WSJ (C) 26.89: The Wall Street Journal reports that cooperation between investigators and Jack Grubman could be troublesome for C, because senior execs at the co repeatedly pressed Grubman to tailor his assessment of telecom stocks to suit C's banking interests.
7:14AM General Electric downgraded at Merrill Lynch (GE) 22.00: Merrill Lynch downgrades to NEUTRAL from Buy and cuts 2003 ests, saying Q4 appears equally if not more challenging than Q3; firm had assumed strong double-digit operating profit growth rates in Q4 in several industrial businesses which collectively seems to have relatively little room for upside, and had also assumed large sequential percentage increases in businesses that include Industrial Systems and Plastics; cuts 2003 est to $1.65 from $1.70 due to pressures resulting from pension income, industrial goodwill amortization, GE Capital, etc.
7:08AM Costco tops consensus by $0.03 (COST) 30.45: Reports Q4 net of $0.52 a share, $0.03 better than the Multex consensus, vs yr-ago EPS of $0.41. Total revs rose 10% to $12.296 bln (consensus $12.41 bln). Sept comps rose 5% (Salomon Smith Barney est was 5-7%). |
