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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: combjelly who wrote (919062)	2/4/2016 9:57:32 AM
From: TimF	1 Recommendation Recommended By FJB Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573714

True. Forty years ago. And 40 seconds ago. It seems that when the studies are well controlled, primarily by comparing areas with similar demographics and economies, raising the minimum wage has very little or no affect on those on the lowest rung of the economic ladder. It seems that the effect of modest increases in the minimum wage is modest. But usually not zero. Card/Kruger which showed a positive effect on employment from a minimum wage increase has largely shown to be wrong by several studies (some of them here gregmankiw.blogspot.com ) In any case the subject of the conversation wasn't modest increase in the minimum wage but high minimum wages. Few economists would suggest that a $15 national minimum, an $18 state minimum or a $20 local minimum (in today's economy with today's dollars, not some future inflated dollars or more productive economy) wouldn't have a negative effect on employment (or at least on legal employment). Some of them might support it anyway, for partisan reasons, or because they think there are other benefits that outweigh the lost employment, but that isn't the same thing as believing there is little to no effect on employment. As a general class Keynesian economists, monetarists, Austrian economists, just about every significant group of economists largely agree with me on this. We went from a borderline depression to a recovery. In near record time No, we went from a severe recession (but one not as severe as many others, if more severe then other recent recessions), to a weak recovery. There was no record time about the recovery of output or employment, or even unemployment (which has been reduced faster then employment has recovered as discouraged workers have left the workforce).

To: combjelly who wrote (919062)	2/4/2016 10:00:00 AM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573714

The Effect of New Jersey's Minimum Wage Increase on Fast-Food Employment: A Re-Evaluation Using Payroll Records David Neumark, William Wascher NBER Working Paper No. 5224 Issued in August 1995 NBER Program(s): LS We re-evaluate the evidence from Card and Krueger's (1994) New Jersey-Pennsylvania minimum wage experiment, using new data based on actual payroll records from 230 Burger King, KFC, Wendy's, and Roy Rogers restaurants in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. We compare results using these payroll data to those using CK's data, which were collected by telephone surveys. We have two findings to report. First, the data collected by CK appear to indicate greater employment variation over the eight-month period between their surveys than do the payroll data. For example, in the full sample the standard deviation of employment change in CK's data is three times as large as that in the payroll data. Second, estimates of the employment effect of the New Jersey minimum wage increase from the payroll data lead to the opposite conclusion from that reached by CK. For comparable sets of restaurants, differences-in-differences estimates using CK's data imply that the New Jersey minimum wage increase (of 18.8 percent) resulted in an employment increase of 17.6 percent relative to the Pennsylvania control group, an elasticity of 0.93. In contrast, estimates based on the payroll data suggest that the New Jersey minimum wage increase led to a 4.6 percent decrease in employment in New Jersey relative to the Pennsylvania control group. This decrease is statistically significant at the five-percent level and implies an elasticity of employment with respect to the minimum wage of -0.24. nber.org And note that isn't for the high minimum wage I was talking about.