To: Gary Korn who wrote (806 ) 12/26/1997 6:38:00 PM From: Duke Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1629
THE YEAR AHEAD: LOOKING FOR CONSENSUS (From SmartMoney Interactive) ÿ AFTER THE UNRULY EVENTS in South Korea this week, it's no wonder the markets can't find much direction. Wednesday's light-volume roller coaster ride -- following Tuesday's late day plunge in the Dow -- proved only that investors are confused. All economic indicators, with the exception of Christmas retail sales, continue to portend the low-inflation, steady growth environment that has fueled this glorious bull run. But the steady drumbeat of bad news from Asia -- not to mention the string of negative earnings announcements over the past few weeks -- is unnerving even the most bullish among us. Normally, we try to sift through such indecision and give you an orderly way to think about the road ahead. But with opinion on this market so divided as 1997 gives way to 1998, we thought it would be more useful to visit with two prominent portfolio managers with two opposite outlooks. We asked them what we can expect in early 1998 -- particularly in the whipsawed technology sector. First we spoke with Arthur J. Bonnel, manager of the U.S. Global Investors' Bonnel Growth Fund (ACBGX). Like most momentum investors, Bonnel has had a rough '97. But his paltry 5% return this year belies his stock picking prowess. For the past three years, he's had a strong 25% return. Tech stocks have been his bread and butter. It's not so surprising then that he remains optimistic. Tech stocks, he says, "have been knocked down so much lately that once the Asian situation settles down they should be back. The U.S economy is growing without inflation, all we need is stability in Asia." He figures investors we will need one or two more quarters to figure out the full ramifications of that region's financial future. But either way, he believes the tech sector was way over-sold in late 1997 and is bound to recover in 1998. "That's not to say that I'm expecting a boom next year, but we'll definitely see some good growth," he says. "Suppose a stock was at $40 and it's come down to $20. Even if goes up only to $28, that's good for a 40% increase. That's the way I look at it." Some of the technology companies Bonnel likes for 1998 are: Vitech America (VTCH), Semtech (SMTC), Modtech (MODT), Coherent Communications (CCSC), Lucent Technologies (LU), Oracle (ORCL) and Intel (INTC). He also likes the drug sector because of its growth prospects. "They're rolling out new products for aging America -- the 76 million baby-boomers. It's a great market," he says. He likes Merck (MRK), Eli Lilly (LLY), Mylan Labs (MYL), Pfizer (PFE), Glaxo (GLX) and SmithKline Beecham (SBH). For those still nervous about the markets, Bonnel's "safe havens" are: Eastman Kodak (EK) and defense company General Dynamics (GD). "Both are good companies with a projected 20% to 30% growth over the next 12 months." One sector he doesn't like: public utilities. "They've had a tremendous run, over 30% this year -- I'm not bearish, but cautious, on them." Alan Alpers, head of Navellier Aggressive Growth (NPFGX), is also a momentum guy. But he's reacted to the past year disappointments by cooling on the year ahead. We picked Alpers's fund a little more than a year ago as one of our "Seven Best New Funds" because of his 40% return from December 1995 through the middle of 1996. Alpers doesn't have very high hopes for the market generally next year, but he's particularly disenchanted with tech stocks. He doesn't think they're going to be very popular on Wall Street next year. "And we don't like a whole lot of them either at this point," he says matter-of-factly. Asia's woes, he thinks, will continue to plague the sector. "But we do like some of those stocks that don't have Asian exposure," he says. His favorites for next year: Smart Modular Technology (SMOD), Jabil Circuit (JBIL) and Applied Signal Technology ( APSG) because of their expanding profit margins and good earnings surprise prospects. All told, Alpers sounds like he's joined the value camp. "The place to be next year is small- and mid-cap stocks where you see low valuations, but overall we don't expect a lot of upside in the general market." Maybe the holidays will cheer him up. About the only thing that is clear going forward is that bonds will continue to prosper as investors nervous about the economy take the "flight to quality." The 30-year Treasury yield now stands at 5.9% and is down over 100 basis points from this summer. "We believe that the market is reacting very aggressively to Asia -- especially Japan and its increasingly fragile banking system -- by buying long bonds," says Elliott Platt, chief fixed-income economist at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette. "We see the long bond yield falling further to 5.75% over the course of the first few months of 1998." Platt, our ninth-ranked pundit, believes that when the dust settles investors will realize that "we have reacted too aggressively to Asia." He sees U.S. economic growth slowing next year to 2% to 2.5%. After the first three quarters at least, the U.S. GDP growth rate has averaged a robust 3.8% gain. From the looks of things, we're going to have lower bond yields, volatile equity markets and a shakedown in Asia -- it should be another entertaining year on Wall Street. Does that clear things up? We didn't think so. -- By Eric Moskowitz and Alok K. Jha