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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Carter Patterson who wrote (43218)	12/26/1997 7:25:00 PM
From: Carter Patterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

MERCED - the next major leg up for INTC. Here is my analysis. If Merced is scheduled for early 1999 release, the market should anticipate this event by sometime around Q3 of 1998 and start bidding up INTC prior to 1999. The next 6 months may be relatively flat for the stock price. Other than a January bounce into the low 80's, to remedy some of its current dump (observe what happened in early January 1997) and then assuming no nasty earnings surprises, I would expect to see the stock remain in the low 80's for the first half of 1998. Then the Kurlak's and short term pinheads of the world will start saying nice things by mid 1998 after their client's are back in. The momentum players will be back and hopefully whoosh! This is really not so terrible, except for the momentum people. Looking at Merced, INTC has obviously had an excellent historical record of EXECUTION, so why would it be different this times. In fact, they are MUCH more experienced than ever, after conquering the world with Pentium, which was much larger than anything before. Nevertheless, I am trying to determine what could DELAY Merced's 1999 delivery and negatively hurt the stock. (a) Technological issues ? I have no way of knowing. (b) MSFT: Does anyone know how dependent Merced is on NT or will the initial market be mostly UNIX. Hopefully, UNIX is the initial big target so there is less reliance on MSFT in the short term. UNIX numbers are so much bigger than NT for the foreseeable future. (c) HWP: Any problems here ? I don't see any, but I don't really know. An aside, the cosy relationship is nice, but does anyone know how much HWP will make on these chips as co-developer ? Will this take a big bite out of INTC's 100% pie. I am assuming that these carry fatter margins so this may be a minor issue. (d) IBM/MOT: I am delighted to see a close relationship with SUNW, DEC, SGI to eliminate this rivalry (whatever it cost to quiet DEC). Where does IBM stand ? Are they committed to Merced as much as the others ? MOT - are they still a factor ? I invite comments. LONG INTEL.