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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1945)	12/26/1997 9:34:00 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Respond to of 3696

Justa: Thanks for your usual insightful analysis. I'm going to take another sip from my hope cocktail and hope that the impact of your explanation #2 is minimized. Hope you and your family are enjoying happy holidays. Best wishes for a happy, healthy and prosperous 1998. P

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (1945)	12/27/1997 9:54:00 AM
From: ccryder	Respond to of 3696

<< the DRAM business and TFH business are in the crapper or will be at some point in the immediate future due to oversupply and declining prices>> The following are my observations and just my common sense thinking. There is a new factor emerging and that is NO ONE will pay the big three Korean DRAM manufacturers money to stay unprofitable. Prior to the flu these companies were cutting prices below cost to capture market share. The Korean banks were more than willing to lend them subsidy money to do this. No more since banks will now expect to be paid back. Now I think there MIGHT be some consolidation in the Korean chip industry or at least some sort of rationing plan to control the production (read price) of the commodity chips. I say MIGHT because the willingness of the Koreans to fix what is wrong has not been demonstrated. Since the tight money has in the near term pushed out the expansion plans of the Korean chip producers, US mfgrs have stayed the course. This just might give the US chip mfgrs the edge in the next industry upgrades. The lead time that the US mfgrs gain will depend on Korean industry financial restructuring which I believe will take several years. It is as much a cultural restructuring as a financial one.