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Gold/Mining/Energy : Caussa Capital (formerly Antares) T.CAU -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: philv who wrote (1946)	12/27/1997 11:54:00 AM
From: JD	Respond to of 4718

Interesting numbers. POG slid a little (-$1.70) Friday but the volumes are so low that this probably can't be considered as any sort of indicator. Silver held up pretty well, though, down only a couple of pennies. There are 2 prevalent schools of thought on the short term POG. Some suggest it'll be driven down again by CBs/Rothchilds/US govt or some other evil force to new lows before coming back and that the the recent rise was artificial (short covering and x-mas demand). Others think that the Asian market crisis is just completely unfixable and the only refuge in the post equity (and possibly social) armaggedon will be gold causing the price to soar like a rocket ASAP. For us bottom feeders it boils down to a simple coin toss.... IMHO the mid to long term (6-24 month) prognosis is for a much higher price than current level (some artificial forces contributing to current low level, US/CAN calling for market slowdown in 2nd half of '98, lag time from Asian meltdown to have full impact on N.A. markets, too many media types trying to convince the public that there's nothing to worry about, etc.) Silver, on the other hand, looks like it's just going to keep on going up. Good for ANZ !! Here's a bit of detail from the Yahoo precious metals summary for 12/26. Two years ago COMEX silver stocks were over 250 million ounces, but have fallen to only 110 million ounces, even after the additional 50 million ounces of Wilmington Trust stocks were included earlier this year, analysts noted. Market analysts such as Gold Fields Mineral Services, CRU International, and CPM Group have all concluded that silver demand has exceeded mine supplies for most of the 1990's, drawing down silver inventories worldwide. So my untrained read on ANZ is that most of the gains in the short term are likely to come from silver results, especially if they push the open pit accessibility aspect. Gold will serve as an 'also ran' unless the Asia melts into a complete puddle of goo, until mid term when it'll give a second wave increase to ANZ valuation when POG comes back up. A staggered rise in the prices of silver and gold might be pragmatic. If gold goes ballistic too soon then the Indo gov't might not be able to resist using the infamous COW ploy again to supplement their existing IMF package. As usual, just guessing. Anyone else want to give it a shot??? JD