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To: Mama Bear who wrote (5084)12/27/1997 8:53:00 AM
From: santhosh mohan  Respond to of 27307
 
Maybe BK stands for Barb! Knows! <g>. Next we will be hearing of ouija boards being used for investment decisions.



To: Mama Bear who wrote (5084)12/27/1997 1:44:00 PM
From: Bill Harmond  Respond to of 27307
 
>>I don't think your exercising your fiduciary duty properly.

Actually I don't have any fiduciary duty. I gave him the 100 shares as a gift the day he was born. Montgomery had allocated me 100 shares in the IPO a couple days earlier, and I couldn't (and still can't) imagine a better college fund investment 18 years out.

His parents and I discussed selling it this week, because we all know the stock is wildly extended and overdue for some sort of correction; but the facts that 1. it was literally his birthday present and 2. will likely be an awesome growth stock for many years made them decide to leave the certificates down at the bank and let it ride. They have decided to add more shares when and if it declines.



To: Mama Bear who wrote (5084)12/27/1997 2:27:00 PM
From: Bill Harmond  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27307
 
>>Who says they'll be overexposed?

Here's my nightmare scenario:

A 2,000 point correction in the Dow would have a profound impact on consumer spending, triggering a recession even for this economy...this while the ASEAN countries run factories full-tilt (literally to keep riots from happening) flooding the US market with low-priced goods.

Americans' savings rate is at historical lows because most have been lulled into financial complacency by the bull market. At the same time Americans instalment debt has increased 50% in the last two years to record levels. 30% of American households have no savings. 50% of Americans over age 50 have less than $5,000 saved including retirement accounts. Of those who do have savings most is invested in common stock mutual funds...and well over half of that amount has only been exposed to a bull market.

Trouble is we're likely not in a bull market any longer. The NYSE has had two lower cumulative breadth peaks (July, October, December), the tech indices are trading below their October minicrash closing lows, and the retail stocks have broken now. Thake a look at the two megaleaders Home Depot and Gap Stores.