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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (13881)	12/27/1997 3:17:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

GM, No, mine are uploaded too. If you cannot read them by this time, I'll email you the two of them. I am not sure if the problem is because they are bitmap files. But your browser should be able to read these. ReEspecially worrysome is that leaders like INTC are weak. IMHO, this past summer was one of the most worrisome times for me. I am least worried once all of the damage has been done(i.e. now) There were a few days this past summer when I felt lightheaded after the performance of some of my stocks. Namely, LRCX ran up from ~30 to 67 7/16 in about two months. And there were no earnings to support it yet. Needless to say, I should have sold; the risk/reward ratio had swung the other way by that time. There was little upside potential but I was too greedy to take any $ off the table. The times I am most upset are when stock prices run up very quickly. Note this is contrary to what most people would think; they have the impression that you are jumping for joy when your stocks triple. For me at least, this is not the case; you simply have 3X more to lose! Personally, I do not see much downside risk from here. If you noticed the last brokerage house downgrade came about a week ago and the stock rose about $1.50 that day. To me, this says the market has impounded most of the bad news(and the analysts are morons<G>) I believe that the market has discounted even the worst case scenario for this sector although it is unlikely to play out in the coming year. SEMI has projected equipment expenditures of ~$28+B for 1998. Some have the # pegged at sub-$20B. I am not sure who to believe but FWIW, SEMI's projections came after talking w/ cos. which represent 90% of the chip industry. During times of uncertainty, the market discounts the worst news. That IMO is what we are currently witnessing. I am not saying the stock will not drift lower in the ST, but my bet is that we will be seeing a new high for this stock by August, since the market must begin discounting '99, and spending delayed in '98..... Regards, Brian