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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris who wrote (4410)	12/27/1997 3:16:00 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Chris, Here's my fun and games 'prediction' for 1998. The DOW will see 9400 plus or minus 200 points, and the NAZ will see 1950 or better. BWDIK Remember, this is for entertainment purposes only. This game is void where prohibited by law. You don't have to be 18 or older to enter. You may enter as many times as you wish and you can change your forcast as fast as you can type. May the best man or woman win. You must be present to collect you prize. GZ

To: Chris who wrote (4410)	12/27/1997 11:59:00 PM
From: Robert Graham	Respond to of 42787

Yes, there will probably be more earnings disappointments coming up for the market, in particular from the tech sector, which will not help. And then there is the unknowns over the Asian situation. Many are seeing the Asian crisis as "bad news" but most do not know what they mean be this bad news other than that the earnings of some companies will be effected. Too many unknowns for the market to react to in a positive way since the market generally abhors the unfamilliar, paricularily when there is established negative market sentiment like there has been. Greenspan's "investor exhuberance" is at least for now becoming a part of the past. But the traders and speculators are still there in the market that profit on volitility. This can give the impression to some that the market is going "somewhere". My thought at this point is that I this market volitility will continue until someting more concrete comes out from what the market fears. Good or bad, this type of event may actually end up having an overall positive impact on the market, for instance when we get past this earnings season and all the news is out. But we are into a period of time where the market is more inactive than at other times of the year. I see previous years where even though the volume may ramp up past the first of the new year, price remians about the same until it starts responding later in January. This may be indicative of a restructuring of portfolios by the fundies continuing into the new year. Anyone want to comment on this? I do understand that there is that January Effect where money can move into the small caps during this period of time. This will impact the NASDAQ to some degree and the Russel indices to a more significant degree. From a look at a history of the Russel 2000 index, this "January Effect" usually started one or two weeks before January only to last until the end of January where the index would drop before moving up farther after January. Last year, there appears to have been an overall net accumulation right through January. This was followed by a retracement and then a breakout in step with the NASDAQ that lead into an uptrend for the remaining part of the year. The small caps corrected with the rest of the market toward the end of this year without recovering to any degree. I think that the "January Effect" may be less pronounced this time around compared to the last time. Any comments? Bob Graham