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To: donald sew who wrote (32003)	12/27/1997 10:13:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Just that when I said I'm a bear, I don't mean I'm a "permabear". The reverse is a "permabull". One who feels the market must continue onward and upward. Simply because it has for years. No, my reasons for a downturn include the concept that the "Asian Flu", as it is, is not a mild contagion. It's a deep-rooted problem which will ultimately affect the region's main banks, the Japanese. These Japanese banks include amongst their investors US banks. Chase and Citicorp were downgraded this week. More will probably follow. I just read the old remark that if you owe a bank $100,000 you have a problem. If you owe them $1,000,000 then they have a problem. They will have a problem if Asia has a problem. Further, warning signs in multinationals...such as the MMM earnings forecast warning of weaker earnings in Asia...will continue. Bank problems will be accompanied by a credit tightening. If Asia has problems the rest of the world will have problems and the US will be okay but still not chugging along like the "permabulls" would like. So when I say I'm a bear it's because I look for a cyclical downturn, so to speak, a shakeout if you will. A gradual market decline into perhaps June. That's what I meant. As far as targets are concerned it's not real important, as it's so far out. In any event, I hesitate to say because I am quite certain my remarks would be dismissed as ludicrous. But think about this...the average investor today has a philosophy that s/he should buy dips. Many have been in the market for 3 or 4 years and their average price is DJIA mid to high 6000s. How long will the average Joe/Josephine be buying dips "for the long haul" if they have a 'net' loss over an investment period of 4 years? That is to say, what if the DJIA breaks below 7,000?