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To: Bong Lewis who wrote (12719)	12/27/1997 8:24:00 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

<< All, every body talking about Jan effect or expecting it will happen, is this good or bad psychologically? >> It's bad when everybody considers it their birthright. Investors assume that all stocks that have been beaten down will automatically go higher after tax-loss season. The market in it's perverse way may deny them. --GRINCH

To: Bong Lewis who wrote (12719)	12/28/1997 10:39:00 AM
From: sunfish	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

All, every body talking about Jan effect or expecting it will happen, is this good or bad psychologically? The strongest evidence that psychology won't matter much is that the January effect is always expected and yet usually occurs. Also to consider, there are factors that are said to drive the January effect that aren't psychological. One example is the availability of "new year" money (pension funds, overseas money etc.). Another example is that tax loss selling can push a stock below its "fair value", thus the price should recover all else being equal when the tax selling stops. Because the tax loss selling season was very late, you may expect some investors to bail early in January if they don't get the quick recovery they expect (psychological effect). This could forestall the January effect to late January or February this year. Just a thought.