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To: CPAMarty who wrote (27129)12/28/1997 11:05:00 AM
From: John Rieman  Respond to of 50808
 
More VCD price wars and lower priced DVDs in 1998............................................

asiansources.com

Outlook '98

Mainland suppliers push into digital technologies

TECHNOLOGY IS the new weapon in China's armory. The price bloodbath that dominated 1997 has hammered home the obvious: you can't win if you depend on low price alone. Cut quotes, and everyone cuts quotes along with you. Emphasize low-cost production, and your next-door neighbor will offer even cheaper labor and factory space.

Time's running out indeed for many of China's products, both the mature and the relatively new. VCD players, introduced just over two years ago, went through rounds of price-cutting last year: quotes fell by one-fourth in August. Color TVs underwent the same experience two months later.

On the bright side, overall output is growing fast. It reached $28.75 billion in August, a 32 percent improvement from 1996. Provinces such as Hunan, Sichuan, Jilin and Guangdong.

At the macro level, the monetary authorities appear to have been successful in their efforts to curb inflation. Latest reports say the inflation rate has dropped from 20 percent in 1995 to a mere 2 percent last year. A series of reductions in interest rates means cheaper loans and more new investments.

Nonetheless, there is a need for faster and more committed development of new products and technologies. Many current products are mature, and competition is so fierce that there is little to differentiate products on the market.

Through the digital door

More and more manufacturers are looking to digital products the way forward in their industry. Breakthroughs in 1997 include the development of IDTV, PC-TV products and MMTV as well as the launch of China's first DVD players.

In September, Huanghe Machinery & Electronics Co. Ltd successfully launched China's first IDTV after two and a half years' research involving local universities and factories. This is a 29-inch color TV that can receive analog TV information and carry out digital signal processing. It is therefore compatible with existing analog broadcasts.

Horizontal resolution is more than 450 lines, vertical resolution more than 500 lines. S-end resolution exceeds 800 lines. Because the product is compatible with computer and multimedia products, it can function as a multimedia terminal at home.

High noon for VCD industry

China has also entusiastically pioneered teh development of VCD players. The country introduced the world's first VCD player in 1993, a prelude to an overnight boom. Production went from peak to peak - from 1.35 million in 1995 to 2.69 million in 1996. With 13 million units projected for 1997 and 20 million for 1998, the mainland is easily the world's largest supplier of VCD products.

Today there are about 400 VCD makers in China.

"For CD player producers, most of the [manufacturing] can be accomplished using present production equipment, at almost no additional cost," said Jin Cai of Zhongshan Subor Electronics Industry Co. Ltd.

FOB quotes have fallen with the influx of makers. Single-disc players, for example, started out at $280 in 1995. They currently go for as little as $80.

The industry is still profitable, especially with advances in the PC industry generating cheaper chips and decoding cards. VCD players cost about $100 to make but can sell for about $170 apiece, a healthy margin that explains the entry of newcomers to the line every month or so.

End in sight for small players?

Perhaps for the first time in VCD history, supply is expected to outstrip demand this year. Makers agree this will have the obvious effect - more price wars - plus one more: the weeding out of substandard products. Big, reputable makers, which can absorb lowered margins better than smaller firms, could begin to drive their rivals away.

"[Smaller, unauthorized] makers pay little attention to their own brands but just add chips and decoding cards to CD players," observed sales manager Shi Yi of leading VCD maker Zhongshan Idall Electronic Co. Ltd. One estimate is that up to 68 percent of the output of some small firms are substandard.

Component quality is one reason. Major parts and component such as decoder cards and chips come from suppliers varying from established specialists to little-known sources.

Zhongshan Idall and other reputable makers are increasingly competing on quality and functionality. They are developing multidisc VCD players, tuning up the audio quality and throwing in remote control. Other value-added functions include LCD/VFD disc indicators, on-screen display, advanced digital echo system to optimize playback, NTSC/PAL compatibility and karaoke functions.

Shakeup in TV industry

Competition has also continued to rage in the color TV industry in the past 12 months. Not only are big brand names producing and selling their product locally; state enterprises have also been getting bigger and more enthusiastic about product development. Dominant producer Sichuan Changhong Electric Appliances Co. Ltd absorbed two TV makers in Jilin and Jiangsu provinces, thereby expanding its production scale and local market share.

The company is active in research and has allocated $157 million for developing large-screen TVs and PCBs. It also influences price trends. Its 15 percent price-cutting in October drove competition to new levels.

The pressure to compete has encouraged diversification strategies. Principal beneficiary has been jumbo TVs. More and more mainland companies have added 29-, 34- and 37-inch TVs to their product lines in the past several months. Most of the products are multisystem and rich in features such as karaoke mixing, multifunction remote control, super bass, stereo surround sound and dome speaker systems.

All aboard the DVD train

China's manufacturers have been hesitant to invest in DVD not so much because of the technical expertise involved, but for fear that the market was not yet ready and few DVD titles were available. As 1998 comes around, however, they appear to have shelved some of those worries. Makers that had working samples ready in the first half of the year, but which held off production until name brands had opened the market, say they now are ready to go into mass production.

Leading makers of VCD players have invested in this new technology. Jiangsu Shinco Electronics Group Co. developed China's first DVD player, announcing it in August. Shenzhen SAST Laserdisc System Company released its first DVD player the same month, although it is holding off production until the first half of 1998.

Software is bound to proliferate and get cheaper, however. Two months after Jiangsu Shinco and Shenzhen SAST's product announcements, news came that DVD software prices for the 6th district (China's DVD district number) are to be lower than in other parts of Asia.

The film list is backed by film industries in the United States, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan. As potential DVD consumers in China will enjoy preferential prices for original software, there is a further incentive for the DVD industry.

Shanghai Thakral Electronics Industrial Corp. Ltd and Zhenjiang Jiang Kui Group are both more optimistic about DVD. Both firms launched sample DVD players in October.

Thakral has set up a VCD and DVD software production line in Hong Kong. Initial pricing is $480 apiece, and finished products were scheduled to be available by December.

"The combination of advanced technology and competitive price, and our own source of DVD software makes us confident of the market future of our DVD players," said general manager Wu Fang-jun.

The firm has received an order for a total of 100,000 units from US buyers. It plans to reach a 100,000-unit capacity by the end of 1998 and 1 million capacity soon.



To: CPAMarty who wrote (27129)12/28/1997 11:22:00 AM
From: John Rieman  Respond to of 50808
 
Europe's DVD launch..........................................

asiansources.com

DVD players

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Europe's DVD industry launch back on track, banking on US success

IN EUROPE, quarrels over standards are being blamed for the delayed roll-out of DVD in the region.

But having missed the opportunity to push DVD to Europe in time for Christmas, the industry has finally gotten its act together and put the bandwagon back on track.

In late August, the leading DVD companies got together and announced their individual first-quarter 1998 European launch plans at the International Funkausstellung (IFA) exhibition in Berlin.

The five software entertainment and the seven hardware companies held two press conferences, chaired by Jan Oosterveld, senior director for corporate strategy of Philips Electronics.

Catching the US fever

The initiative, led by Warner Home Video (WHV) president Warren Lieberfarb, presented a concerted European introduction plan.

Announcing that WHV plans to release 25 movies in the major European territories in the first quarter of 1998, Lieberfarb said that the success of DVD in the United States left him in no doubt that DVD will become a successful product worldwide.

"Sales in the United States have been above expectations [sic] and it is time to aggressively move ahead now with the release of major titles for the European market," he said.

WHV will release an additional 10 to 15 titles per month after the launch, and expects to have more than 100 titles available in Europe by the end of 1998.

WHV's titles will carry a suggested retail price equivalent to $25 in local currencies. New DVD titles will be introduced simultaneously with their VHS counterparts. All WHV titles released in Europe will include both the local language and the language from the original theater release.

Following WHV, Columbia TriStar Home Video announced it would begin with 10 DVD titles. More than 30 titles are scheduled for release by the end of 1998.

PolyGram Filmed Entertainment said it would launch between 15 and 20 DVD titles in Europe by the end of 1998. MGM Home Entertainment and Universal also announced plans for movie releases in the first quarter of 1998.

The industry expects to have about 100 titles available at launch time. By the end of 1998, the total number of titles is expected to exceed 250.

A boost for home cinema

DVD, when combined with other new products like widescreen TV and multichannel surround sound receivers, is expected to fuel the growth of the home cinema market. The market is already growing at 20 percent by value worldwide.

On the hardware front, Philips Electronics, the leading European company in the development of DVD, announced that it will introduce two players and a multichannel receiver that offers consumers a home cinema experience. Sony has also announced the launch of its two quality-oriented DVD players and its digital multichannel surround processor for spring 1998.

"Toshiba has played a leading role in the development of DVD technology from the beginning and we have always recognized that DVD will essentially be software-driven," said Mike Brown, UK marketing director for Toshiba. "We see DVD as the logical next step for home cinema."

Pioneer Electronics is another company which plans to introduce DVD players to Europe in the spring, when the greater number of DVD software titles are expected to become available.

"We will introduce two models, a laser disc-compatible model and a DVD-only model," said Masaii Okubo, executive board member, Pioneer Electronics Europe. "Our initial marketing plan is to expand the DVD market by emphasizing the laser disc-compatible DVD player."



To: CPAMarty who wrote (27129)12/28/1997 11:33:00 AM
From: John Rieman  Respond to of 50808
 
MPEG-4 about two years away.......................................

asiansources.com

MPEG-4Posted December 5, 1997

Latest MPEG standard could open new markets

It will be a few years before most MPEG-4 products emerge, but the low-bandwidth multimedia technology should complement MPEG-2 capabilities.

Just as MPEG-2 technology begins to move into the mass consumer market as part of DVD, a successor standard with its attendant technology is being hammered out. MPEG-4 is the next effort of the Moving Pictures Experts Group (MPEG) and, while based on the older approach, it is quite different from MPEG-2 in several key aspects. As a result, several new applications and markets could emerge.

Several challenges must also be overcome before MPEG-4 can enter high-volume production. Nevertheless, companies such as Microsoft, Sun, Intel, Motorola, Toshiba, Philips and SGS-Thomson are engaged in developing the standard, as well as the products for that standard. Experts forecast widespread acceptance and implementation of the new technology.

"Eventually, it will be hard to buy a personal computer that's not capable of doing this," predicts Ralph Rogers, principal analyst for multimedia at San Jose, California-based Dataquest Inc.

Eventually in this case means at least several years. The standard will be finalized in two steps, with version 1 slated for final release in late 1998 and version 2 a year after that. Concerns about the difficulty of implementing all the features of MPEG-4 lie behind this two-step approach. The complete, frozen standard will not be ready until nearly the turn of the century. Products and applications will have to wait on that event, which means the MPEG-4 era has to take place some time after the year 2000. Version 1 products will show up before then, but even those will not appear until late 1998 at best.

Multimedia protocol
MPEG-2, both the standard and the technology that supports it, focuses primarily on how to handle the transmission of digital video. It is essentially a digital representation of an existing analog broadcast standard, and is based on transmitting complete scenes using 6MHz bandwidth.

MPEG-4 is different in several ways. First, it is not designed to be either just a video or an audio specification. It is an entire multimedia protocol, with standards for how to stream video, how to synchronize multimedia, and how to manage different data types.

"MPEG 4 is object-orientated," explains Paul Fellows, external projects manager for SGS-Thomson in Bristol, England. "It's basically concerned with objects in the same line as pixels."

SGS-Thomson is one of the world's foremost manufacturers of MPEG-2 semiconductors, and the company is active in defining MPEG-4 with an eye toward commercial implementation of the standard. SGS-Thomson is teaming up with other European partners in the European Union's Emphasis project to make reference hardware MPEG-4 designs using the SGS-Thomson Chameleon and Philips Trimedia processors. Philips is already demonstrating an MPEG-4 decoding algorithm running on its Trimedia chip.

The Trimedia chip decodes multimedia objects that the receiving terminal uses to reconstruct scenes. These objects can be video, audio, text, animation, or any other type of multimedia. This object orientation has several benefits. For one, this means that the best playback method can be used for a given data type without degrading any other. Text can be visually sharp while at the same time streaming video is being played back. Another advantage is that it is much easier to select or manipulate parts of the scene. That benefits multimedia production, but it also allows viewers to interact with broadcasting in ways not possible before.

"The audience participates or becomes part of the experience of the show," says Asaf Mohr, president and CEO of Cambridge, Massachusetts-based VDOnet, a leading supplier of real-time video software.

Computing demands
However, there are some drawbacks. One is that it is hard to predict the amount of computing power needed by the new standard. With MPEG-2, that figure was relatively constant, and hence easy to judge and plan for. With MPEG-4, the load could be much lighter if there were relatively few objects that were changing frame to frame, but it could also be much greater if there were many.

Just how much computing power will be needed by MPEG-4 also depends upon the how "shapey" the objects being encoded and decoded are. Fellows, of SGS-Thomson, reports that with proper care the burden can be lessened from 50 percent of total processor time to 17 percent if content developers choose objects carefully.

Another key difference with the older standard is that MPEG-4 does not die when bit rates drop below 1Mbps. The standard will be able to handle everything from megabits per second on down to a few kilobits per second. Because of this low bit rate capability, MPEG-4 can be used in such applications as video telephony, Internet broadcasting, or in wireless communications. It is such applications that are of interest in Europe, Japan and elsewhere among hardware vendors.

"If there are ASIC or any kind of hardware components that come out, they'll be targeted to low-end things, like say putting video in a pager, putting video in a cell phone," comments Jed Johnson, director of the streaming media business unit of Motorola, in Mansfield, Massachusetts.

Motorola's streaming media business unit makes software for providing real-time video over the Internet and company intranets. Microsoft also is active in this area, and it is Microsoft's backing of MPEG-4, along with a strong interest in the standard in Europe, that is likely to make the new approach popular.

One downside of the lower bit rate capability is that to maintain acceptable playback rates at such low speeds requires higher and more computationally intensive compression and decompression of the objects. Consequently, in situations where network congestion may impact bandwidth, such as the Internet, the load on processors could vary quite a bit.

Although Motorola does make MPEG-2 chips and is in both the pager and cellular phone business, the company has no announced plans for a hardware implementation of MPEG-4. Other hardware vendors such as Philips and SGS-Thomson also will not release details about specific products, but they do acknowledge that they expect that eventually MPEG-4 decoders will be a combination of software and hardware.

Not the end of MPEG-2
This is not to say that MPEG-2 will be swept aside in favor of MPEG-4. For one thing, MPEG-2 has a large head start and will soon have a large installed base. Dataquest predicts that there will be some 40 million DVD players, either in PCs or as standalone units, sold in the year 2000. That is significantly up from the less than a million in 1997.

Also, the two standards are complimentary. MPEG-2 excels at handling high-bandwidth broadcasting, while MPEG-4 is intended more for low-bandwidth interactive applications. For PCs and software-configurable standalone playback stations, the ability to handle MPEG-2 computing load also enables them to handle MPEG-4. In such cases, converting from one to the other may only require a programming change, so much of the installed MPEG-2 base might eventually be able to handle either standard. Having access to so many viewers is also likely to be a big boost to the adoption of MPEG-4.

It is even possible that a playback device would be called upon to handle both at the same time to take advantage of what each has to offer.

"Terminals could receive MPEG-2 current broadcast channels and also decode MPEG-4 streams from the Internet or side channels and enable videoconferencing or 3D games or teleshopping-applications where MPEG-4 has clearly some advantages," notes Isabelle Corset, head of the image and communication department at Philips Electronics Labs (LEP), in Paris, France.

While some have characterized MPEG-4 as a technology solution in search of a problem, there seems to be enough interest in it to ensure the new standard's success. And if not, there is always the next standard waiting in the wings-MPEG-7.

Electronic Components - January 1998



To: CPAMarty who wrote (27129)12/28/1997 1:47:00 PM
From: John Rieman  Respond to of 50808
 
More DVD articles..............................

DVD slow to take off....................

msnbc.com

msnbc.com

Picture of Toshiba's portable DVD player....................

msnbc.com

DVD, you'll want one.......................................

msnbc.com