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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rick Voteau who wrote (8550)	12/27/1997 9:27:00 PM
From: paul e thomas	Respond to of 13949

Rick, There is ample historical evidence that the Y2K stocks have a higher beta than the market as a whole. I do believe that prior to the recession Y2k stocks will significantly outperform the market. There is another concern of major consequence for Y2k stocks namely as the number of quarters before the year 2000 reduces the market multiple for the latest quarterly results will diminish. I believe the turning point will come when the sequential earnings growth rate starts to decline the mutual funds will become risk adverse.In the case of IMRS the stock I know best it may come after the march results are published.

To: Rick Voteau who wrote (8550)	12/28/1997 2:13:00 PM
From: Stewart V. Nelson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13949

Paul <<<Will the Y2K stocks be drug down with the rest of the market??>>> That is a difficult question to answer. I believe the IT solution providers (KEA, TSK, TSCC, ANLY etc.) will "fly" but I am not sure that enterprise software vendors (PSFT, SAPHY, BAAN etc.) are going to go along for the ride. I think they have peaked. Businesses will not waste time and money converting. Conversion is not a "silver bullet" solution to the problem. Stick with the "Body Shops" and bonds. Just my opinion. Regards Stewart V. Nelson