To: greg nus who wrote (3203 ) 12/28/1997 7:59:00 PM From: Brian Hutcheson Respond to of 6843
Hi Greg ,thanks for article on market .. the latest Business Week has a good survey of analysts/economists on '98 stock market , suggest you obtain a copy . I was looking for a large correction on the Nasdaq from the beginning of october , however despite the Asian problems that index held first at 1600 then at 1500 . This was over an almost 3 month period . The 2 previous corrections took 2 months from start to finish . Those facts indicate to me strong underpinnings to the nasdaq , I now have returned to neutral/bullish for the Nasdaq . Although the Nasdaq has dropped approx 250 points , many of the semiconductor , semi-equipment and disk drive companies have dropped back to 1994/1995 levels . At these levels those stocks discount all the possible bad news and are near lows IMO . The BW article I referred to has estimates on the level of Nasdaq for '98 also , the figures vary from 1130 to 2015 . Even Michael Metz (oppenheimer) a perrenial bear gives 1550 as his Nasdaq yearend . Joe Battapaglia has 1900 . I feel that of all the chip cos. , AMD is one of the few that has control of its destiny , they can sell as many as they make . There are many cos. that would like to be in that position . As long as those interest rates keep dropping the market has strong support , the Dow utility index is signalling lower rates at the moment which is bullish . Also the short interest on the NYSE is at a record high of 3.6B shares short , also giving strong underpinnings to the market . Finally with all this negativity out there and year end tax loss selling don't you find it amazing that the market held up so well ? Brian