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Technology Stocks : Ultratech Stepper -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: donss who wrote (1952)12/28/1997 10:18:00 AM
From: ccryder  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3696
 
Could Mr Short be waiting until after Jan 1 to cover, for tax reasons? This could be a clue to timing the next cycle in this stock.



To: donss who wrote (1952)12/28/1997 6:28:00 PM
From: bill  Respond to of 3696
 
<<I looked up the short interest for the last 6 months (WSJ -IE):
7/24/97: 1.27M
8/26/97: 1.11M
9/24/97: 1.55M
10/24/97: 1.68M
11/25/97: 3.44M
12/24/97: 4.31M>>

Don, thanks for the research on the UTEK short interest for the past 6 months. I believe that 20% of total outstanding is a very high level. However, some tend to use a ratio based on "number of days to cover", measured as total short interest divided by average daily trading volume. In UTEK's case, that level would now stand at about 7 days, which is -- I believe -- high, but not at all extraordinary. (Note that when comparing this number to exchange-traded securities, you have to consider the tendency for NASDAQ daily trading volume to be effectively doubled due to the fact that most transactions take place through two market makers.)

Nevertheless, I too am rather puzzled at these relatively high levels given that even a "dyed-in-the-wool semi bear" shouldn't see that much downside left in UTEK (remember the $8 per share in cash, etc.). Geez -- cover and take that profit!

As for a ceiling on short interest -- don't forget that the purchasers of the shorted stock can also buy on margin, and why can't those shares be shorted again? I'm not an expert, but I'm not aware of a theoretical limit on short interest.

Lookin' to make one more small UTEK purchase this week maybe.

bill



To: donss who wrote (1952)12/29/1997 4:12:00 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 3696
 
Hi guys,

> I don't understand why the SI is still so high,
> do the shorts really expect more
> downside beyond what we have experienced?

I own UTEK puts as a hedge on my long
semi-equip positions, so I will answer
your question. I looked at the semi-equip universe
for a stock that is expensive and would
most likely fall because of earnings shortfall
and other negative news.

UTEK was the one that fit the bill:

1. PSR. UTEK has one of the highest PSRs in the industry.

2. Exposure to DD segment. After the closure of
SEG's plant in Ireland, the near future of DD equipment sector
is pretty cloudy.

3. Uncertain prospects of mix-and-match steppers
during the SEA trouble.

4. Small drop of stock price from the summer highs.

I also considered the following positives
of the long position (negatives for short or put position):

1. Great company with outstanding management.

2. $8 cash per share.

3. Prospects of great Ultrabeam and P-GILD future.

I expect to see UTEK at $14-$17 range in the
next year.

Disclaimer: All flames will be cheerfully ignored.
My opinions and my portfolio have changed since posting of
this message. :-)

Have a happy Holidays and a great New Year

Raimondas



To: donss who wrote (1952)1/1/1998 4:04:00 PM
From: Bill Martin  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 3696
 
Re: According to Yahoo the Float for UTEK is 14.3M ...

Not that it makes any particular difference to your argument, but Value Line shows 20.6M shares and the AAII Stock Investor CD shows 19.5M average outstanding shares over the past 12 months. Is the 14.3M "Float" shares you refer to something different from the shares outstanding or is this simply a case of various reference sources disagreeing?

Thanks.

Bill