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To: Mr. Aloha who wrote (12029)12/28/1997 5:20:00 PM
From: Elroy Jetson  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25960
 
I would hope we see some consolidation among manufacturers of memory and some other components. But memory may join disk drives as a perpetually profitless business.

The lead article in Barron's made the obvious point that the marginal producer sets the price in these markets. A financially dead zombie Korean memory manufacturer with 5% market share can sell at a a price which eliminates everyone's profits.

For this reason I cannot imagine why the US and Japan, individually or through the IMF, would be interested in bailing out Korean memory makers. I think there's every incentive to see that these Korean plants close as soon as possible. I'm sure the clean rooms can be used for something useful.

Can you picture Micron in the US and Hitachi in Japan each investing $1 Billion each in new equiptment only to see their own governments subsidize capital expenditures of the walking dead in Korea? Lots of new Cymer equiptment will end up in Korea only over the vehement objections of US and Japanese manufacturers.



To: Mr. Aloha who wrote (12029)12/28/1997 5:38:00 PM
From: Angela  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25960
 
<< I'm expecting a lot of consolidation in the memory
business etc.. >>

Yes -- I just saw an NY Times article in my local paper (St. Pete Times) about the S. Korean companies being prime takeover targets.

Angela



To: Mr. Aloha who wrote (12029)12/28/1997 11:58:00 PM
From: TI2, TechInvestorToo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 25960
 
When you say you expect a lot of consolidation in memory business, what do you mean? The number of units produced will remain the same but the number of companies supplying them will be reduced? Units reduced and companies reduced? etc. Some cases mean fewer steppers (and therefore lasers) and other do not. Please clarify
Thanks
TI2