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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (12428)	12/28/1997 2:25:00 PM
From: tekgk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

>> the resolution of the problems as you see them and as I see them are slightly different. This is how we all learn. >> former soviet union as the typical chaos during the stage of "capital accumulation". Although I agree, I think that it will take a decades to get things moving over there. >> by the expansion in the demand base of the world's economies The expansion is very quickly turning into a decline in Asia and the former soviet union. Europe is growing very slowly. I believe that our growth will be impacted dramatically without foreign lending. Brazil and others in South America are being hit by loans being called and bonds being sold. The high interest rates needed to defend the currency will be damaging to the economy. Africa is not growing either. Who is left? Don't forget the other side of the equation. With the collapse of Communism we have added billions of new producers to the worlds economy. It will take 10 or more years until they become significant consumers of big ticket items. Even small item producers like coke are having growing in Asia. >> undergoes a capital concentration process of its own, where "warlords" Once again, true, but I think that progress will be very slow and that social unrest will be an important factor. >> addition of a larger portion of the world's population "joining" the consumer society I view China as 1.2 billion producers rather than 1.2 billion consumers for the next 10-15 years. Longer term I completely agree with you. The future looks bright. >> my current stand of a cyclical bear market remains unmodified Good, if you and I agreed on everything, how would we continue to learn. >> I have been wrong before and will be wrong again We all make mistakes - I know I have made plenty of them. I figure that if I am correct more than 1/2 of the time I will make money. A link to a link that is quite interesting: Message 3034615