To: Wharf Rat who wrote (924180 ) 3/3/2016 10:02:56 AM From: Wharf Rat Respond to Surface temp up 0.175°C, satellite temp even bigger riseMoyhu NCEP/NCAR index rose from 0.665°C in January to 0.84°C in February, continuing to set records. Similar rises are likely in the main surface indices. The base period for that index is 1994-2013, but reset to the 1951-80 period used by GISS, it would be 1.436°C (see the linked table, bottom left). Currently GISS has been running about 0.1°C cooler than NCEP/NCAR, on the same base. Here is the plot of the last year or so, daily: UAH V6 TLT index rose from 0.54 °C to 0.83 °C. Big rises are expected at this stage of an El Nino. RSS rose even more from 0.663 to 0.974°C. As predicted , this was enough to totally extinguish the "Pause" in both satellite TLT records. Some say the Pause may come back, but it's unlikely. Here is the basic math. For RSS, the mean since 1997 (a pause period) is 0.257°C. This will change, but slowly. The trend rises in proportion to the excess over this for each new month, and drops if it is less. There are going to be several months with an excess near 0.5. To negate that accumulation requires a set of months undershooting 0.257 by similar months. In recent years, months near or below 0 have been rare. Update. Karsten also has similar surface results, with GFS rising from 0.655 to 0.817°C and NCEP/NCAR T62 from 0.653 to 0.819°C, with anomaly base 1981-2010. moyhu.blogspot.com
