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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (17818)

3/4/2016 4:36:30 AM

From: John Pitera

1 Recommendation

Recommended By
3bar

Respond to of 33421

Gold and Silver update on the Long term charts. gold has broken out of the downtrend that I have illustrated on this chart complete with the requisite momentum buy divergences.

The Very long Term 45 year Monthly with Fibs and other considerations is also showing great relative strength

The Long Term Silver Chart is showing a solid basing and then an what should be the early stages of it's next secular bull market.

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Message 28815056

We are diametrically opposed in sentiment and in price action from april 4 2013 set up in GOld where sentiment was too bullish and the price action was in a bearish descedning triangle where I believed we would see a $400 drop off of a cliff in GOLD. Goldman Sachs came out 8 days later saying something similar and we did see a very rapid $400 drop

To: Yorikke who wrote (13977)

4/4/2013 1:59:05 AM

From: John P

1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) of 17818

Hi Y,

here is a chart........gold is in a very interesting and fairly complicated pattern.....it has many elements
of a market that is in a descending triangle which usually one of the most reliable chart patterns to which would suggest that we will break the horizontal baseline support and in that case a reasonable target for the ultimate end of the decline would be about $400 lower than 1923$ price top out in Sept of 2011 and these jagged lows
in say thw 1528-1535 range....... the chart looks lousy and I would not be looking to buy this support but would be shorting it on a break 2 day close below $1500 and wondering what will be happening in the global economy if it goes down $400 bucks from here.

The very deep momentum generated on the RSI on it's Feb 2013 decline almost mandates that this chart is going go break down and the price of gold denominated in USD is going lower.

The XAU is down 50% and is showing a double momentum buy signal, but a quarter of those companies are on the financial rocks....... if gold breaks down and we see a meaningful decline, then I do not know how you can say that TA is Nonsense.

Our FED and the Central Banks of the world have driven us off into fantasy worlds........ but I would not throw the baby out with the bathwater......... Interesteing the XAU..... which is down from 228 to 128...... that chart is actually showig a double momentum buy divergence...... but remember its for the companies that staty in business....

John

PS constance brown has written an excellent book on TA that has been updated in 2012.....she has a very interesting of using a methodology of using specifice ema averagers overlaid on the RSI and I believe she's on to something good.

I hope to discuss her methodology..... and maybe generate a few books sales for her sometime soon.

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Message 28978964

working with AJ...we also pretty much caught the bottom in Gold, The Mining stocks etc in on jun 29th of 1013.... it turned into a 30+ % rally on the HUI and other related vehicles...... and then it has been out of season in terms of strong directional moves... which as we are now in 2016 appear to be coming back into the fore.

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (14163)

6/29/2013 2:58:28 PM

From: John P

of 17818

Hi Chip....I have a whole grab bag of content and charts here.... but I know you are one of the gifted ones on SI who can weave through my Matrix -vbg- = very bug grin

To: gold$10k who wrote (45202)

6/29/2013 2:40:26 PM

From: John Pitera

of 45207

Hi Gold10K, you could easily be right...after all we are talking about Gold topping out over 2 years ago and at 1923$ an ounce and we were down all the way to $1180... everyone is insanely bearish..... and we have room for a huge short squeeze.... I get feed lots of good info... Dr. John Najarian was commenting how he was going long the AGQ which is the Silver pro shares.. thursday's fast money and sometimes I here things and they ring true.... Silver leads gold and I did post a chart a 5 year monthly silver chart back when it was at 21 saying I was looking for an ultimate target of 17.50 to 18 and we got 18.06 and then a big reversal on Friday... the gold miners and HUI also leads the physical metal and I posted a 20 year weekly chart that shows that we have come back to the Major uptrend line and are more oversold than at any time in the past 20 years. Most of my work is tilted toward those who are larger position traders who have to scale out of shorts on the way down and scale into longs before we reach the turn...... I had already been doing stock trading commodity futures , options and currencies. with a company called Richardson Mann in the American Express building in Sydney... after having traded at school in Texas,,,

I was very much into technicals , Elliott, Gann, Price divergences, sentiment and moving average cross overs etc.... I was fortunate to land a job on the bond desk at citibank... and I was young and tech savvy enough that I brougt in live time charting software and live price feeds... I was the only one in a dealing room of almost 100 people who had this.... I'm talking 1986-87...... I ended up running a profit center and also becoming the chief market technician.... and because we had such a sophisticated swaps team and very large book.... a very large forward FX team..... an excellent floating rate note desk.... funding... and others.. we were so big in the Sydney bank bill futures market that on many days half of the total volume was from our firm.... and the different desks where using them 75% of the time as an arbitrage hedge... but I did find that I had to think about what was coming down the road.... and start to get people geared up to change from bull to bear in the late stages of the price move..... that has kind of carried on.....

I normally don't look at the interday and real short term stuff....but right now... is right up there with anything I have ever seen or read about...

Message 28976672

also AJ posted this on my market Lab last night and it is falling into place...

From: ajtj99	6/28/2013 10:33:36 AM
	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 14245

The XAU weekly has made or is close to making a low, IMO. The current trading box appears to extend from the 80 area to the 110 area. The risk/reward

The HUI from June 11th and now the one from today

I use elliott but I look at the global currencies and global yield curves and the interest rate differentials as the drivers of all other asset classes, also several spreads between the high and lower grade corporate and muni rates, the spread between treasuries and CDS index... and what is going on over seas..... If you look at the weekly chart of the HUI we have a Gap Island reversal possible with a Friday close on the high of the week.... very very rare..... I can name 25 different things... and I actually have scattered all over SI... but much of it is on My Market Lab.... The Mortgage Market is shutting down the real estate run up.....

The bottom line is that the asset classes are inter related and I see a turn or as AJ said ... we are darn close....... he is correct about a 7 to 1 risk reward ratio...anyone who is still hanging around short these 2 metals needs to read through the Market Wizard books about 5 times and wait 5 months between each reading....

John..

JJP