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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4176)	12/28/1997 7:06:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 10921

ReCan you tell me why only 12 months ago it traded to 1X revenue? and the entire equipment group could easily repeat 1996 valuations. Jay, In 1996, AMAT's nadir in terms of PSR was 1.0. On that you are correct. However, there was a fear that the equipment sector would see not only sequential earnings shortfall but also losses. That in fact, did not come to fruition for AMAT(it did for many of the lesser players) and hence the 5-fold runup in the subsequent 12 months when the analysts realized the sky was indeed not falling. If AMAT does meet its eps forecast of $2.08-$2.15, which they have reiterated only a week ago, then we are looking at a record year for AMAT for earnings. Reason for AMAT to trade at 1X sales?? Certainly not IMO. regards, Brian

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4176)	12/28/1997 10:45:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Jay, It would seem from your recent posts that you believe that what has happened a decade or more ago will always happen exactly as it did happen last time or the time before. The world is not the same world it was then. The economy is not the same economy it was then. The role of semiconductors is not what it was then. Competitive issues are not what they were then. Marketplace issues are not what they were then. A rear view mirror is a useful device. But if you plan on driving the car, a front windshield is even more helpful. Good luck (especially to those whose portfolios are being managed), Ian.

To: Jay M. Harris who wrote (4176)	12/29/1997 11:35:00 AM
From: Clarksterh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Jay - At the end of '95, DRAM, which suffered from the largest amount of over-capacity, made up about 60% of orders for semi-equip. Now it only makes up around 40%. In addition, in late '95 the logic makers and foundries were also over capacity, although to a substantially lesser degree than DRAM. That is far from obvious today, with most foundries booked solid. (however, I'll admit it is hard to gain insight into this except on a company by company basis). Thus, '98 is likely to be substantially different from '95, although the uncertainty is likely to hurt capital equipment sales in the first part of the year. Clark