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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (12457)	12/28/1997 8:56:00 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Respond to of 18056

Investor2, >> 3. "The budget deficit is not disappearing - the big items have simply been moved off of the books." The fact is we are taking on 188 billion dollars of new debt this year. Budget deficits don't count in this game just debt IMO. Joan

To: Investor2 who wrote (12457)	12/28/1997 9:50:00 PM
From: tekgk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Investor2, >> Do you have any data supporting the following statements? >>3. "The budget deficit is not disappearing - the big items have >> simply been moved off of the books." September 30, 1997 $5,413,146,011,397 September 30, 1996 $5,224,811,939,135 Increase $188,334,072,262 Claim 22 billion. The 188 billion is even worse since it does not include social security. Social Security surplus goes into the general revenue pool and gets spent. An IOU is created and put into the trust fund. The trust fund is just another liability of the U.S. government using normal accounting. However, the government spins it as a fund with money in it rather than a liability. publicdebt.treas.gov >> 1. "Chinese banks are completely and totally bankrupt." This conclusion comes from the request from China for 600 billion in IMF loans at the September G7 meeting in Hong Kong. The admitted to 315,000 bankrupt businesses and the need to cut 150 million jobs from these ailing industries. The banks are forced to lend to these institutions. I can't find a link at the moment. Here is one that talks about their real estate problems. smh.com.au >> "China started this current round of devaluation's and will likely be forced to initiate another round next year." The yuan was devalued about a year and a half or so ago as I recall. This put presssure on all of SEA. I can't recall the exact date. There were several good links posted on the Mohan thread regarding the pressure that China is feeling as a result of the currency devaluations of other ASEAN members. Since Chinese industry does not borrow in dollars they may not feel as much pressure as other ASEAN members. There was a post on the gold thread regarding interest rate cuts ( a prelude to a devaluation) in China last week. I spent hours searching for hard facts but was unable to find any in English that I could read. If you or anyone else can read chinese I could use some help determining exactly what happened in China last week.

To: Investor2 who wrote (12457)	12/29/1997 10:09:00 AM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 18056

I2, in the past few months tekgk has been posting many links to articles from many sources. I learned a lot from his posts and the links he provided. There is no question in my mind that his reasoning is well founded. Even it weren't, people have different opinions about the various markets stocks etc. Though I don't see anything wrong in seeking justification for any thoughts, quite frankly, I feel rather uneasy when posters on this thread are asked to show "proof." I believe that many on this thread are mature individuals who can make their own judgment on a number of issues. It has been the case that here people go by mutual trust. Unfortunately, for tekgk (or anyone else) it is time consuming and a lot of headache to revisit a number of old posts for the sake of re-establishing his credibility with every new lurker on the thread. After all, this thread is located in an obscure corner of SI. It most likely that no damage can be done to the world markets by the "unfounded" remarks posted on this thread. I hope you understand. Have a great new year. -Mohan