To: freelyhovering who wrote (80932 ) 3/15/2016 8:18:05 AM From: GROUND ZERO™ 1 RecommendationRecommended By Hawkmoon
Respond to of 223295 The Problem With This Oil Rally The problem with this oil rally (which already proved transient) is that the forces that drove oil up to $40 are not really indicative of a change in the oversupplied market. Oil rig count in the United States has been dropping steadily in 2016, while oil production has remained steady. Rig counts are released weekly but do not provide a good indication of oil production in the United States, because the rate of production from rigs already in use has climbed steadily. Oil storage facilities present a much more accurate indicator of the amount of crude oil in the U.S. These storage facilities are so fully stocked that overflow is being stored in rail cars. The significance of this cannot be understated – there is so much pumped oil in the United States that there is nowhere to put it. Even ending the oil export ban has not helped because the global market is nearly as over supplied as the U.S. market, and U.S. oil is struggling to find outlets internationally. When it comes to the so-called “production freeze,” the truth is that the market should have known better. Talk of an agreement to hold oil production at current levels has been floating around since the beginning of 2016, and every time Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iraq, Qatar, the UAE, Oman and others meet secretly in some combination the same theme emerges. It goes like this: the big producers will only agree to a freeze (not a cut) if everyone else – including wild-card Iran – agrees as well. Meanwhile, Iran has stated unequivocally that it will not freeze crude oil production, at least until its export numbers return to pre-sanctions levels.investing.com GZ