Tudo Beleza
With Lula back, who is in charge of Brazil?
By John Paul Rathbone in Miam
Who is actually in charge in Brazil?
Last week it seemed to be Dilma Rousseff, the country’s incompetent and unpopular president. Then, last weekend, it looked to be the people. An estimated 3m protesters marched in Brazil’s largest ever anti-government demonstration to demand Ms Rousseff’s impeachment on corruption charges.
This week, though, it seems Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, or Lula as he is commonly known, is in charge — and new protests are sweeping the country.
The charismatic former president rejoined the government on Wednesday, at Ms Rousseff’s invitation, to act as her chief of staff. According to Brazilian media and the country’s often accurate rumour mill, he may also bring with him Henrique Meirelles, a respected former head of the central bank, to replace the incumbent Alexandre Tombini.
In some ways, it is an internal self-coup. In his new role, Mr Lula da Silva will hold a key power-broking position that plays to his reputation as an irresistibly convincing negotiator and all-round political whizz. But the re-ascension of a leader Barack Obama once called “the man” also threatens, in effect, to end Ms Rousseff’s presidency.
“In practice, Lula’s third term as president has begun,” wrote Eduardo Solese, a columnist in Folha de S.Paulo, the leading daily, suggesting journalists, businessmen and fellow politicians will all now want to speak to Lula, rather than Ms Rousseff. “Dilma will have to get used to it,” he wrote.
So why did it happen? More to the point, why would Ms Rousseff invite her own political immolation?
While Mr Lula da Silva’s government role will be multifarious, cynical self-protection, by both politicians, is a plausible motivation — and one alleged by large numbers of Brazil’s public.
Somewhat like a co-pilot who takes over a floundering aircraft, Mr Lula da Silva will take control of the joystick from his ineffective successor, Brazil’s least popular president. He would then be tasked with resuming contact with ground control by bringing the government’s coalition allies fully on board with the ruling Workers’ party.
That should help stabilise the aeroplane — and protect Ms Rousseff — as the stronger coalition support for government will help fend off her impeachment.
Mr Lula da Silva’s will then have to navigate the aircraft through Brazil’s worst recession since the 1930s, and land it safely in time for the 2018 elections. Stabilising the economy is not entirely implausible; he dispelled market doubts by proving to be a pragmatic policymaker when he first won the presidency in 2002.
Still, any of these tasks is a huge undertaking, even for Mr Lula da Silva. Together, they are harder still.
But he may also be acting out of self-interest as much as patriotism or social concern. Mr Lula da Silva faces separate money-laundering and corruption allegations. New protests erupted across the country on Wednesday after phone recordings fuelled accusations that Ms Rousseff had brought her predecessor back into government to protect him from arrest.
He has not yet been formally charged. But a growing flood of plea bargains by former allies, caught up in the multibillion-dollar Petrobras corruption scandal and who want to avoid long jail sentences, will probably lead to fresh evidence emerging.
As a minister, Mr Lula da Silva can only be tried by the Supreme Court. That does not offer him a guaranteed escape but it may slow down the judicial process.
Investors, uncertain as to what to make of it all, have turned on their heels at these developments, and sold. Brazil was already suffering from the drop in commodity prices and the hangover of a credit boom. But still fast-growing economies such as Chile, Colombia and Peru, which have suffered much the same pressures, show happier outcomes.
Brazil’s distinguishing problem is the anti-corruption drive rocking Petrobras and other institutions. This has produced conniptions from implicated politicians; frozen investment, as many business leaders are also involved; and turbocharged the economic troubles.
As a result, many of Brazil’s mainstream politicians are now in disgrace, and nearly all of them unpopular. Even the opposition leader was booed during Sunday’s street marches.
The depth and scope of Brazil’s corruption purge has scant parallel in other emerging markets. In time, it holds out the heady promise of a better way of doing things. That new order may be stillborn. Meanwhile, the old one is going down in a brawl. |
