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To: Rarebird who wrote (27165)	12/29/1997 5:50:00 AM
From: CPAMarty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50808

If i understand you correctly there are two main reasons for the bear market in 1998; 1. You said "The companies ( especially Taiwanese, Japanese and Korean ) wanted to get market share at any cost without looking at profitability or how to pay back the debt. The local banks borrowed very heavily and lent to these companies, who ultimately could not pay back the loans as promised. Banks, who had borrowed overseas and lent to these companies, lost their capital while protecting their domestic customers under the government's influence." Assuming that the Taiwanese, Japanese & Korean Banks wanted to repeat the mistake that you cite; do you think the IMF will let them? (esp. in Korea) Assuming that this trend of borrowing to increase market share has been ended by this crisis, i think this might actually be a positive for the U.S. market for 1998. 2. You are predicting that interests rates will rise in the second half of 1998. Alot of people have been predicting that rates would be going up for a long time, what makes your prediction different the theirs? What will the South Eastern horders invest their money in after they pull it out of the USA? Their Banks? I do think that the high U S dollar will hurt exports, however since we import more than we export, there will be an offsetting increase in importers' earnings.

To: Rarebird who wrote (27165)	12/29/1997 10:20:00 AM
From: Helios	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50808

Rarebird, I think your analysis of the Asian crises is 180 degrees off. The Asian tigers have been pushing a business model that was successful for Japan over a 40 year span. Market share at any cost - undercut everyone because profits will come later. What you have been describing as what the Asian countries are going to do, is in fact what they have been doing and failing at. In this environment it is the American companies that have been succeeding. The reason that the Japanese model is not working is simply that their are too many players. China primarily is responsible for making the strategy untenable. The reason that the Americans have been succeeding is their emphasis R&D, cost cutting and frankly we have learned a lot from the Japanese and their business practices such as advanced inventory and quality control. How will the Asia handle this crises? I imagine that each country will handle it differently but I believe that they have gotten the message. The IMF bailout could be their last chance to reform their system and they will not be able to incur more debt to build more factories just to drive down prices and gain market share. While they work this out, the technological revolution marches on and Asia may not be able to keep pace. American technology stocks will benefit over the mid term creating new markets with new innovations and technologies. Are we in a bear market? I think we are in one but I can't say how bad it will get. I expect though that when it ends, stocks will come roaring back. That's what usually happens at the end of a bear market and market timers that smugly tell you of how they got out just in time forget to tell you that missed the bulk of the rebound because they thought that it was a `fake out rally'.

To: Rarebird who wrote (27165)	12/29/1997 12:39:00 PM
From: DiViT	Respond to of 50808

SPECIAL INTERVIEW- STEVEN M. FRANKEL, PARAGON CAPITAL, DISCUSSES INVESTMENT SCENE 12/22/97 The Wall Street Transcript Digest (Copyright 1997 Wall Street Transcript Corporation) (DAP914/00) Steven M. Frankel of Paragon Capital describes Kondratieff "super cycle" rationale for projecting "higher prices" near future. Effects capital gains tax, potential "deflationary environment." Why "mutual funds will track the market." Coming "part two of the dollar crisis;" "three screens" for taking advantage near- term. Charts as "leading indicators of stocks;" particular "warning signs." Four areas followed. Time horizon for "not for widows and orphans" recommendations. Opportunities in "innovative technological companies." Preferences, buys/sells, detailed descriptions, including: Interphase (INPH), C - Cube Microsystems (CUBE), Diamond Multi-media Systems (DIMD), Centocor (CNTO), Immunex (IMNX), Amgen (AMGN), Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) and IDEC Pharmaceuticals (IDPH). Complete text, approximately 5,000 words. Document #DAP890. SPECIAL INTERVIEWS, The Wall Street Transcript, 100 Wall Street, NY 10005. Voice: (212) 952-7400. Fax: (212) 668-9842. E-Mail twst@worldnet.att.net. Telecommunications Industry T9