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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: robert b furman who wrote (18018)3/22/2016 12:14:35 PM
From: John Pitera2 Recommendations

Recommended By
3bar
roguedolphin

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
Hi Bob,,,excellent point it was kind of a was of time evaluating those different nuances of stable value funds relative to money market funds... I guess part of my interest is the situation that has State Street Bank charging custodial management fees to banks and institutions that have more than $100 million on deposit in their bank.

It's just bizarre that a fund or bank has to PAY money to keep cash deposits at a bank. And also with the recent developments in the US bond market with the overnight negative repo rates.

No wonder Stanley Druckenmiller world famous investor, whose Duquesne Capital, had increadible returns over a 30 year period and never had a down year has 30% of his money in the GLD and Gold.

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Stanley Druckenmiller Offers a Bearish Warning

By ALEXANDRA STEVENSONNOV. 3, 2015

Stanley F. Druckenmiller, the hedge fund titan and founder of Duquesne Capital, is not optimistic about much these days.

The investor who led George Soros’s bold bet against the British pound in 1992, Mr. Druckenmiller is worried about the Federal Reserve and its “emergency measures” of quantitative easing. He is worried about the stock market entering a bear market. And he thinks we are in a bubble of sorts.

Speaking on Tuesday at the DealBook conference at the Whitney Museum of American Art, Mr. Druckenmiller praised the Fed for responding quickly to the financial crisis of 2008 but said its emergency measures of pumping trillions of dollars into the financial system by buying back bonds and keeping interest rates low had gone on too long.

You’re pulling demand forward today, this is not some permanent boost. You’re borrowing from the future,” Mr. Druckenmiller said. “The chickens will come home to roost,” warned Mr. Druckenmiller, who has been a frequent and vocal critic of the Fed and its policy of near-zero interest rates.

Mr. Druckenmiller, who stopped managing investor money for his hedge fund in 2010, also provided a glimpse into some of his current positions, telling the audience that he was shorting the euro and bracing for a bear market, which he said began in May of this year.

“I can see myself getting very bearish, I can’t see myself getting bullish,” he said. Mr. Druckenmiller also told the audience that some of his best returns had been in “great periods of chaos.”

Despite the downbeat message, Mr. Druckenmiller said there was one thing he was optimistic about.

“My future,” he said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/04/business/dealbook/stanley-druckenmiller-offers-a-bearish-warning.html?_r=0





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I read earlier today that he has upped his stake in GLD to an incredible 30% of his family office's money in the GLD etf according to my seeking Alpha news feed. I know he had a 20% stake in GLD late last year.

seekingalpha.com




Whale Watching: Stanley Druckenmiller Makes A Large Bet On Gold
Aug. 16, 2015 3:56 AM ET|24 comments | Includes: FB, FCX, GG, GLD, NEM

Summary
With the recent Form 13-F postings, famed investor Stanley Druckenmiller's personal fund showed a new increase in GLD shares.

Not only did Druckenmiller establish a new stake in GLD, he made it his biggest holding at over 20% of the portfolio.

Investors should remember that Druckenmiller's name was made in the currency market, and thus his bullish bet on gold should be given a good amount of weight.

It is "Whale Watching" season when most hedge funds and institutional investors file their Form 13-F's with the SEC that lists their fund's holdings. In this article we will take a quick look at interesting additions, removals, new positions, and closed positions from Duquesne Family Office LLC.

Duquesne Family Office LLC, is not your ordinary family investment office, it is the personal family investment fund of legendary investor and billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller.

As investors can see, Duquesne Family Office (DFO) increased its stakes in Facebook (NASDAQ: FB), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Halliburton (NYSE: HAL), Freeport McMoran (NYSE: FCX), and of course GLD. What's very interesting is that out of the top six holdings, four of them were completely new positions.

Conclusion for Gold Investors

Since we focus on hard assets, the thing that really piques our interest is the large purchase of GLD by Druckenmiller's personal fund. Not only was it a large purchase, it was an extremely large percentage of the fund's portfolio at over 20%, quite significant considering that most gold bulls only recommend a maximum of 10% dedication to the yellow metal.

Further, investors need to remember that Stanley Druckenmiller isn't the average billionaire, he made his name and a good portion of his wealth with George Soros in the Quantum fund. He and Soros famously "broke the Bank of England" when they shorted British pound sterling in 1992, reputedly making more than $1 billion in profits. The important takeaway here is that his expertise was in currencies, and of course gold should be thought of as a currency and not a commodity.

We know it is difficult for investors to invest in anything gold-related right now, but obviously Mr. Druckenmiller believes that there is some value in investing in gold - and enough to make it his largest portfolio position at over 20% of his portfolio. As we've stated before, we still believe gold holds a lot of value (especially at these prices) and thus investors should consider physical gold and some of the gold ETF's (SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA: GLD), PHYS, CEF). Additionally, the miners that have been underperforming gold over the last few months may offer investors considerable leverage to any rise in the gold price. Investors looking for this leverage may want to consider evaluating gold miners such as Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Agnico-Eagle (NYSE: AEM), Newmont (NYSE: NEM), or even some of the explorers and silver miners such as First Majestic (NYSE: AG) (we're not suggesting these companies specifically - only suggesting them for further investor research).

seekingalpha.com

(editorial note by JJP ... I like his long GLD position. In this low cost environment I wonder if he should be trying to own more physical gold since it's not costing you any interest to own the metal.)



To: robert b furman who wrote (18018)3/25/2016 5:30:09 PM
From: John Pitera1 Recommendation

Recommended By
roguedolphin

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
Part 2 of VIX: 5 Reasons Why Stocks Look Ready To Tumble

March 23, 2016, 1:59 P.M. ET

By Chris DieterichAnother strategist is cautioning that now looks like time to hedge stock portfolios after the double-digit percentage gain in U.S. stocks since early last month.

For traders with a short-term investment horizons, or long-term investors looking to add some protection, Wednesday’s missive from Michael Purves is worth a look. Purves, chief global strategist and head of equity derivatives research at brokerage Weeden & Co., itemizes five reasons why now looks to be a prudent time for investors to buy downside protection or trim a bit of recent gains. He’s not bearish long term; rather, it looks to him as if the market could be in for a 5% tumble. Here’s my summation of his thoughts spiced up with direct quotes:

  1. The SPDR S&P 500 ( SPY) looks “overbought” after rising 13% in less than six weeks.
  2. This whole rebound feels a lot like October, when stocks rallied quickly after plunging in late August amid concerns about China’s growth and currency devaluation. Both times, the VIX plunged and the stocks rally coincided with a sinking dollar.
  3. Now, a sharp drop in the VIX, an options-based measure of the cost of stock-portfolio insurance, seems to be finding a bottom. Here’s Purves: “The VIX has contracted significantly and is currently below 15 and is at 6-month lows. However, the VIX appears to be establishing support at the same level that concurred with the topping of the October rally top.”
  4. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, which has been beaten-up this year, is also finding support. More Purves: “the dollar is critical to the direction of the equity market (as the dollar weakens SPX strengthens, and vice versa). While we think the dollar top is in, we highlight that the dollar should find some near term support as it consolidates its recent weakening.”
  5. Oil remains highly correlated with stocks and so if oil pulls back, so too will stocks: The correlation of crude with equities has defined U.S. equities for several months. While we think the equity market should be increasingly capable of shrugging off a crude roll over, this de-coupling won’t happen suddenly.”
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) edged higher on Wednesday to 14.7, still at a level that is roughly half of its Feb. 11 closing high of 28. This blog has noted that some options strategists see a “ volatility overshoot,” while others see VIX “ downside exhaustion.” In plain English, these folks are similarly warning that stocks have rallied so fast and volatility has plunged so much that each trend seems due to reverse. This scenario would be a setup for exchange-traded products including the Barclays iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN ( VXX), VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short Term ETN ( TVIX) and ProShares Ultra Vix Short-Term Futures ETF ( UVXY).

Here’s the bottom line, per Purves:

“As the long weekend approaches, we recommend investors buy near-term market hedges to hedge out the risk of a market roll over. The market has just put in an aggressive 13% rally off the recent lows in six weeks and implied volatility levels are low. We are between key event cycles (post central banks, pre earnings) and technical considerations loom large. …

We think the risk of market sell off before April expiry is high and the potential for a 5% sell off (~1,950) is very real.”



blogs.barrons.com

a 5% sell- off seems quite doable....we shall see... everyone have a blessed good Friday.

John