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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: greenspirit who wrote (43314)	1/3/1998 4:29:00 PM
From: stak	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

--Quantum Chance-- "IN THE END THERE CAN ONLY BE ONE" The Highlander. As it stands now Intel and Microsoft are the only two immortals left. (Yeah,I know there's other hardware and software companies left in the debris,but for discussion's sake...). The odds greatly favor Microsoft leading into the year 2000. Even with the extra top end money from Merced for Intel, I don't believe Intel can outgun Microsoft.-Let's check the score card in about 15 years.- 1)Microsoft won't hit the "hardware" wall if they stay with software. 2)Microsoft will never have to pay the billions needed to upgrade fabs that Intel spends. 3)Pretty well any software can be run now with the average hardware specifications that are being sold.(2gig hard drive,P200MMX 16 meg RAM) 4)Voice recognition opens up a whole new market. This will be a huge market in 5years time.($45 million investment in Lernout & Hausie Sept/97) 5)Microsoft stepped into cable in a big way in 1997 and there's no doubt B. GATES has a major plan of where he'd like to take broadband pipe. I believe that this blueprint is much more spectacular than anything in Microsoft's previous history. Funny, but I think it is similar to what SUN's McNealy envisioned long ago.(The network is the computer) 6)DVD and set-top boxes will bring PCs closer to the television,if not actually merge them. I expect Gates to lobby to the extreme.(CableLabs) 7)PC-TV is tied into #6. 8)I don't see Microsoft being particularly helped or hurt by HDTV. Summary: Microsoft has a large cash hoard that it is more than willing to use to acquire strategic companies or technology. MSFT has been "hardcore" about the internet since Dec7/95. This change in strategy was a monumental one! To turn the course of the MSFT corporate vision so profoundly is astounding!!! I look to Microsoft to downplay the O/S in the future and concentrate on content and broadband delivery in a "hardcore" way in 1998. Don't expect WIN98 to be nearly as front and center as WIN95. NT5.0 will be pushed hard but at not at the home consumer level . We won't be seeing a Microsoft tinfoil dance commercial like Intel has. I have no predictions for revenue figures. RESISTANCE IS FUTILE!!!Party on Microsoft,we're not worthy. Wayne and Garth --------------------------------------------------------------------------- By now you probably think that I'm way down on Intel. Actually I'm far from that but I see the writing on the wall(hardware overkill). Intel will still make great profits in the coming years from Pentium descendants. The server and workstation markets offer lots of promise. Unfortunately AMD and Cyrix may have profitable niches in the sub-zero and segment zero markets. Strangely enough I don't see AMD and Cyrix as being Intel's enemies --competition yes. Intel's real enemies are HDTV and Microsoft. regarding HDTV Intel may have no reasonable chance of competing for disposable income. HDTV is just too appealing. So that leaves Microsoft. I have no doubt that Intel will eventually lose the battle of which is the best company if it stays on this strategic course---Intel's business model is predicated on being able to keep its price points high and moving the technology ahead rapidly.--- Gates vs. Grove a match of egos. One can see that Intel realized that cpu development was getting too costly to venture into by itself so it partnered with Hewlett-Packard. That's great for cutting down the R&D costs but, who puts out the bucks for the fab? Still Intel 100%? 50/50%? Also HP would expect their cut of the bonanza. How much is HP's share? The profits from Merced's advance into mainframe territory should be excellent. But what happens to the low end of the pc market? Should Intel by some chance lose the low end then the "Intel Inside" could be rendered obsolete? I don't know what to expect in 1999 ,it's much too early to tell. In all this, Merced and the IA-64 architecture are Intel's WILD CARD. Intel must devise a strategy to thwart Microsoft, not embrace them. This is paramount this go round. As I see it Intel has only one way to "kill" Microsoft. Under no circumstances can Intel allow an MSFT O/S to be the only choice for Merced TCI's Malone is dead on. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Under no circumstances can IA-64 run predominately on a Microsoft O/S ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Yes there are two paths you can go by but in the long run there's still time to change the road you're on. The move to IA-64 is a quantum leap! ---good luck Intel--- Post script. Does it raise anyone else's eyebrow to hear the "only the paranoid survive?" Isn't a paranoid a person with psychotic or delusional behavior and beliefs? Oh well it's probably meant only "metaphorically". Never mind. Hats off to Mr. Grove.