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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (26417)	12/29/1997 12:15:00 PM
From: Meathead	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Man.... your math is whacked. How do you get a 3% drop in net margins? Try using a spreadsheet to simulate Dells operating model and the effects of various events on earnings.. not just pulling percentages out of your rear. Here's a clue. Dell's asia/japan sales represent 7% of revenue or $223 Million for Q3. You are predicting that sales go to ZERO. In fact, sales are still increasing in this region only at a slower rate. This is what the term slower growth means. So, no revenue hit. Furthermore, you don't seem to grasp the concept of declining component prices in the region where Dell procures most of it's material. You won't get a 3% drop in net margins even if sales dropped significantly in that region. cheers MEATHEAD

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (26417)	12/29/1997 1:54:00 PM
From: hpeace	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

jim, all I can say is your post doesn't indicate any knowledge of this business. I really think that until a few yrs. ago you didn't even know that cpq or dell existed. I actually think that voodoo economics is better stated than you case for a 3% margin drop.... I strongly suggest that you spend some time in the business world. it looks like you went straight to the analyst world with zero experience. Not that you need experience in business to be analsyt, most have zippo experience anyway. just go to the cogs line. then a pc is 92% purchased cost. not 92% of cogs..but, do some math and get tat number. then start dropping purchase cost 10% and see what you come up with. I say 10% to be conservative. the biggest number on the p&l is the purchase cost.. when that drops 10% then you have whopping extra profit. then simulate it with 20% and 30% drops. I've actaully been told to help drop purchase cost 40-50% several times in my pc industry career.