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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (4185)	12/29/1997 2:30:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

RE:By the way, DRAM went from 60% of shipments to 40% of shipment in dollars sales not in unit shipped, the decline is due to more than halving the selling price in a year (in some segment of DRAM the current price is a third of that a year ago). 1995 1996 Total IC Sales $144 $129 DRAM Sales 40 24 ----------------------------- % DRAM 27.7% 18.6% Can you explain what you were saying in the above quote? TIA, Bob

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (4185)	12/29/1997 2:32:00 PM
From: Clarksterh	Respond to of 10921

Zeev - <<but the overcapacity might be as much as 30% in DRAM>> Where did you get this number? I am extremely sceptical of it, and would be interested in the credibility of your source. <<By the way, DRAM went from 60% of shipments to 40% of shipment in dollars sales not in unit shipped, the decline is due to more than halving the selling price in a year (in some segment of DRAM the current price is a third of that a year ago).>> When I quoted the 60% and 40% numbers I was quoting equipment makers estimates of equipment shipped to DRAM makers. Not DRAM maker revenues. The point is that foundries and other logic makers have been expanding much faster than DRAM makers, and hence make up a larger percentage of the installed base than they once did. (Note: As Ian and I once discussed on another thread, I would expect this trend to continue since I see the need for more and more speed, but not too much more memory. Ian had some good reasons for disagreeing, but not enough to change my opinion. Thus, although I expect DRAM vendors to become profitable again, I don't expect that the semi-equip makers will only turn a profit when DRAMers are making a killing.) Clark