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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Micah Lance who wrote (57088)	4/4/2016 9:45:06 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	1 Recommendation Recommended By LukasSavickas Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78655

I don't predict the future. :) My investment in oil cos this time was very crappy (unlike 2008-2012 when oil investments were multibaggers). Down 50% or so from funds invested and I doubt that positions I hold will be multibaggers to recompense. I also sold out from some of the potential multibagger positions because of BK or large continued losses risks (possibly got whipsawed though). And, no, currently I don't have great ideas to invest into if oil swoons again. Perhaps something like DNOW, but I doubt I'll buy it. Maybe some more bonds in companies that won't go BK, but that depends a lot on various factors. Banks, yes, if BAC, JPM fall, I'll add likely. Good luck

To: Micah Lance who wrote (57088)	4/4/2016 11:04:23 AM
From: Ditchdigger	1 Recommendation Recommended By Micah Lance Respond to of 78655

I'd add(already have) pharma and healthcare to your sector watch as well. Pharma is catching a bid today, it's time we see some sector rotation,imo. (I see GE got a down grade for overvaluation today) Jeez, snowing gangbusters here and 17 degrees. Spring must be here.

To: Micah Lance who wrote (57088)	4/4/2016 3:19:19 PM
From: Graham Osborn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78655

Jurgis can attest to the fact that many value investors (myself included) have been too early in the energy sector. Commodity cycles last 18 years average and we are only a few years into a bear market. It is way too early on a sector rotation basis. For banks we are probably even earlier. There are still too many assets on the balance sheets of large banks that were not addressed in 08-09. This could be even more problematic if the Fed should attempt to liquidate its huge portfolio of MBS, which would re-freeze a large part of the market, rather than monetizing it. You are not unusual in trying to figure out a sector rotation strategy to the investing conundrum when value is hard to find. If you pursue this theme, my recommendation is to view the cycles in a longer term way. Think of tech as the first wave (late 90s bull). Think of energy/ basic materials/ EM/ industrials as the second wave (mid 2000s bull). Think of healthcare/ CDs/ CSs as the third wave (mid 2010s bull). Technically the last phase should be services and utilities. Certainly the dividend stocks are still pretty pumped up right now. I'd lump the 3rd and 4th wave into the 2010s although there is some phase separability.