To: Sam Scrutchins who wrote (8271 ) 12/29/1997 6:38:00 PM From: David Miller Respond to of 10836
IMHO, investors have already discounted any possible dilution due to the VSGN merger Rod's math back in November seems to have picked this one:exchange2000.com Also, bear in mind that Visigenic stock was at $5.25 the day before the acquisition was announced. If the market is starting to believe that this was a fair valuation, the conversion price levels Borland out at $6.40. But I don't think this is fundamentally a mathematical issue. My view is that the market's short attention span has simply dropped the stock off its radar for a while. A couple of solid growth quarters following the clearance of the normal acquisition financial debris (provisions for this, that and the other, plus imaginative use of that wonderful "cost of acquisition" bucket), and it will get some attention again. There is a real tension here between Del's six-to-eight quarter horizon, and the market's myopia. I suspect one of Del's problems right now is that the market's reaction to VSGN is effectively preventing him from proceeding with another acquisition in the short term. And I think he will need a couple more yet to fill out the strategy. It's a cruel world sometimes. Del worked out pretty early in the piece that Borland's traditional desktop developer market was tapped out. You can make money in a mature market either by maintaining market share while the total market grows, or segmenting the market and dominating the new segment(s). Del is taking both options, VSGN being essential to the first strategy, as will Spectre, and JBuilder to the second. It is difficult to see what else he could have done. But he's also finding out that moving out of a traditional market space is more than simply picking up some smart technology. david