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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Graham Osborn who wrote (57114)	4/5/2016 12:08:55 PM
From: Micah Lance	Respond to of 78661

"This is where I disagree. I don't think just because a sector is correcting or entering a bear market means it is the time to rotate in. Rather, I like to think of the entry point as where you have good businesses that are both (1) totally ignored and (2) totally undervalued. This policy of just buying whatever is getting ripped apart on the headlines this morning doesn't sit well." I agree completely with this. Once the sector enters a correction or bear market, then most investors will run away allowing for these stocks to become ignored and undervalued (which I was attempting to make this point earlier, however I didn't explain myself well enough). One sector that has been fairly beaten down is transportation. The DJT is down about 15% since November 2014. Most airlines I've looked at seem to have strong balance sheets, and oil remaining low is certainly a help since most of the expenses for airlines are for fuel. In Q4 2015, most airlines posted near record profits b/c of this. Also, I wasn't aware of this but during the same time period the Dow is up a yuge 1/2%. Best, Micah

To: Graham Osborn who wrote (57114)	4/6/2016 5:16:19 AM
From: Ditchdigger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78661

Always appreciate your opinion Graham, although I believe you are disagreeing with a point I wasn't making. "I don't think just because a sector is correcting or entering a bear market means it is the time to rotate in" My point (which I know I'm failing to express) is more about the relationship the 3 sectors discussed, healthcare,utilities, and cons.staples have to each other on the rotation/eco cylce model. Again, I think there should be a tendency to rotate back to the historical norm on the model. But I've been wrong before,could be wrong now and most certainly will be wrong in the future. I'm going to risk backlash from Paul for posting this chart of XLV and pre-appoligize for my sins. One way or another, we are at an inflection point imo. All the best.