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Biotech / Medical : momo-T/FIF -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robohogs who wrote (10638)	4/13/2016 5:38:55 AM
From: Robohogs	Respond to of 12215

On BTK index, I just looked back at the monthly charts and historical data. In the 2000-2002 crash, BTK corrected 78.6% of the preceding bull market. IF you take only the last segment of this bull market rally, using IBB and defining rally as 210 to 400, the low occurred 4% below the same retracement. The actual low occurred at the 50 month moving average and the 200 week moving average (call it the 4 year avg). If you use 2012 as the start (arbitrary) but there was a downtrend (small) in very late 2011, the same retracement would target 185, considerably lower. Now that considering, as strong as the recent move has been, it has moved ONLY from IBB 60 in late 2008 to IBB 400 at the high for a move of just under 7x over 7 years. That being said, the move in late 90s/early 00s moved from BTK 100 in late 1998 to just over BTK 800 in March and again September 2000, so 8x in 1.5 years (or 2 years if take the second high), so there was a true bubble back then whereas in this latest round, the move was less (7 vs 8x) over a 4 times longer period. Also, earnings came with this latest move. And the latest rally started from really washed out levels in a vigorous bear and the start point in the late 90s was in a panic (think Russian) not an uber bear. All in all, I think it is likely the bios have done their penance. Getting away from the daily noise, I would not be surprised to see this keep rallying in bio land. And overall. Valuations stink but DO NOT fight the Fed. Jon