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Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robohogs who wrote (338)	4/17/2016 10:24:54 PM
From: Robohogs	Respond to of 668

I am highly conflicted here. Based on NYMO, it usually, once moving would go to top of page implying a rally week, or two if it got as strong as early March. Seasonality says higher too. Seasonality does not however pick up changes in opex within April. This year it was extreme, as early as can be. If it were to be as late as possible, the rally in the graph would start right at opex so my best guess is we have used some of the fuel, if not all of April. Usual post opex is down a bit so Doha will help drive normal. BUT I am also of the mind we may churn above 2040 in a tight range to 2085 while working off oscillators. The best chance to break to new ATH is to go sideways otherwise we get there fully overbought. But buy the dip is being re-ingrained. The doomsayers expect collapse out of complacency. The rally has just been too broad, too intense and too strong to simply roll over and die. We gotta watch oil, as stupid as that may be. Lower oil is good for more of US but everyone so worried about mfg and banks. I have hedges on for today but prefer higher after that. Given technical setups I prefer to trigger buying in SPX, if it can teach ATH. I don't think 1-2 weeks of churn trigger sell signals though but just reset indicators. So churnng may be best to avoid a double top. Although we are near other double or triple tops.