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Technology Stocks : Trimble Navigation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Todd N. Weisrock who wrote (2039)	12/29/1997 6:22:00 PM
From: David	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3506

So the stock was up on bad news . . . . I was going to post that I basically agreed with Skip on a $.30 quarter, but now I guess I won't. What leaps out at me is the $2.5 million shipping each day. That's a lot, if it is not just an unrepresentative rush at the end of the quarter. FY98 prediction: I'd say the stock earns in the range of $1.05 to $1.50 next year, on increased sales of about 25 percent. Best guess for earnings: $1.25 or a touch less. The way this stock is closing the year, I'd say investors are looking for a reason to push it past $30, but now they may not have one. I'd also say it will have a FY98 multiple of about 35, but could be higher at times next year; it looks like it's getting popular. Many tech stocks of this size are getting killed.

To: Todd N. Weisrock who wrote (2039)	12/29/1997 7:10:00 PM
From: SKIP PAUL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3506

Todd, Thanks for the post. I don't understand II's conclusions.CUGR's are manufactured by the Aerospace division. I don't understand Why CUGR's would replace commercial system products which is a separate division. More likely they would replace commmercial avionics products which also carry lower gross margins. $2.5 million a day is as good as it gets. It sounds like that should enable them to make their numbers. The additional $1 million in R&D and increased legal costs would reduce earnings by 4.5 to 8 cents per share. If they have won the Lerach suit that is indeed worth the reduction in earnings.

To: Todd N. Weisrock who wrote (2039)	12/30/1997 3:19:00 AM
From: George T. Santamaria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3506

<.....Not only does Trimble have to temporarily push aside higher margin commercial products; CUGR has incurred some higher research and development costs than expected, so R&D expense will jump to close to $11 million. ...> Do you know if this Army contract is fixed-price or is it CPFF? Typically, with a CPFF contract, one passes through overruns, however, he does not get his fixed markup. If we are talking a CPFF contract, then the effect of an $11M overrun would be to miss the profit, typically 5-10% that one is entitled to charge. I think that the $0.22 cited on a latter post is a more reasonable figure. I would treat the IIonline analyst with considerable skepticism because the words on the earnings impacts are his and not Mr. Ing's. The market momentum will tell all tomorrow.