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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Berkel who wrote (9052)	12/29/1997 5:57:00 PM
From: Terry	Respond to of 9285

I would seriously consider your statement that YHOO and AMZN are not commodity products. In my mind, they are very much commodity products.

To: Michael Berkel who wrote (9052)	12/29/1997 6:00:00 PM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 9285

<< Don't misunderstand me, I am very interested in shorting but I don't see a reason for a steep decline, other than a (too) high valuation. And I was taught never to short a stock ONLY because of its insane price. >> When a stock valuation like YHOO gets so out of whack with reality PEOPLE WILL FIND a reason to sell the stock. Possibly an influential analyst coming out and saying that YHOO is outrageous? I don't care much for Barrons but maybe a negative article from them is good for a 5-10 point decline? On the other hand there are scenarios where YHOO could shoot up 10 or 20 points in one day as well. How about AOL acquiring YHOO for $120 a share in stock? Maybe, you think?

To: Michael Berkel who wrote (9052)	12/29/1997 8:36:00 PM
From: Bill Wexler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Of course it is interesting to note that you could've bought all of Xerox on many, many occasions (between 1975 and 1992), for a lot less money than you would pay for Yahoo now.

To: Michael Berkel who wrote (9052)	12/29/1997 8:52:00 PM
From: Fernando Saldanha	Respond to of 9285

Michael, on the possibility of Amazon.com becoming the bookstore of the world, I think one should look a E-Trade for a comparison. The problem is that, like in the online trading area, there are no barriers to entry. Barnes & Noble and Borders, in particular, will enter the online business and compete with Amazon.com just like Fidelity (and others) are competing with E-Trade. That is, assuming that Amazon.com can make some money, otherwise they will not even bother to compete. On the comparison with Xerox, I believe Xerox had patents, and was unstoppable until other vendors came up with competing technologies. Again, the comparison does not apply since Amazon.com does not have any patents or anything to prevent competition. Best regards.

To: Michael Berkel who wrote (9052)	12/29/1997 10:18:00 PM
From: Bill Wexler	Respond to of 9285

<<I am sure YHOO will fly as high as 75 and perhaps even further up into the stratosphere and so will AMZN. No doubt about it. >> I sincerely hope everyone (including the shorts) start thinking this. Then I'll know its time to double up my short position on Yahoo. BTW, I also said that there was no doubt that Yahoo would tank when the stock was trading at 25....at 30......at 35....at 45....at 55....at 65 . So what would I know?

To: Michael Berkel who wrote (9052)	12/29/1997 11:09:00 PM
From: Mike Harkness	Respond to of 9285

Michael, I would like to clear up my position on YHOO. I only want to short it as a trade. I am not long term negative. I think a 25%-50% correction is in order. If there is no climax or short panic and the stock creeps up then I won't go short. If the stock has a rapid runup on 5 -10 points then I think it will correct sharply. I have seen this happen too many times. Also, I am making this decision with the current tech market weakness in mind. If Yhoo has a rapid runup and ALL stocks do the same I might be inclined to sit and watch.