To: Rational who wrote (5182 ) 12/29/1997 6:28:00 PM From: IKM Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27307
Hi, Sankar! YHOO certainly is breathing rarified air. I agree that January 1 could mark a turning point, as indeed, funds want to look good for year end. Also, Barb! has made the point that quarterly tax payments must be made on gains, but it don't work that way for losses. I.e., if a short wants to realize losses for help on April 15 and move on to something else, he's got 1 1/2 trading sessions left to do it in. He just can't sell the same stock again within a month or it's a wash transaction. So I suspect most of the buying support of late has been short covering. Beyond the first, shorts will be very committed. I've watched the trading a lot, and I believe there is very little stock changing hands other than between MMs. The bid/ask quantities are usually pegged at 10 each, with a spread of 3/8. ( Barb!, with her Level II screen, may wish to correct the following.) YHOO seems to stagnate most of the day, with occasional bursts of buying to push through the thin ask quantities and establish a new high on thin volume, before everyone else piles in on both sides and it settles down at a higher level. I suspect there is selling into the momentum rush, by the initiator, distributing shares. I don't know how long this can go on, but since this process is impervious to general market conditions, there are three possibilities likely in the near term: 1) January 1, as above; 2) earnings not as high as inflated expectations that probably exceed analysts' forecasts - it will be a time for longs to reassess the earnings they are paying for; 3) an analyst breaks ranks and lowers rating, if only based on price. If a severe downdraft develops, it could feed on itself as the Four11 principals decide to dump what shares they have left, fearing a lost opportunity. Don't ignore the market makers' role in all this per the Fortune article I posted earlier: Message 3053873