Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : The Brazil Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: aknahow who wrote (1565)	4/25/2016 2:49:14 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2508

Brazil has turned the curve! Why? you may ask, the bad news now is a bike accident that 2 persons died and is being used as a proof the Brazil is going down. For two years running, Latin America’s largest nation has been convulsed by nothing but miserable news. Its economy is in tatters, the president may be forced out of office and a rolling corruption scandal has shattered the reputations of moguls and political legends. http://www.post-gazette.com/opinion/Op-Ed/2016/04/25/An-ominous-collapse-in-Rio/stories/201604250022 Let me explain. When something is really wrong: macroeconomics, Petrobras scandal the bad news are supported by facts that journalists dig. After 4 years, journalists ran out of bad facts to publish. This is the point when the country turn the curve and is on the way up. The political imbroglio is out of the air for the moment as the political process moves on. USD is not getting stronger. With low BRL exports are kicking real good. Commodities have bottomed Now the bad news are even if a cat fell from a lamp pole because the firefighters did not arrive on time.

To: aknahow who wrote (1565)	5/3/2016 5:24:36 AM
From: elmatador	1 Recommendation Recommended By aknahow Respond to of 2508

Faint economic pulse detected through Brazil’s political turmoil Glimmers of economic hope may come too late for Dilma Roussef APRIL 17, 2016 YESTERDAY by: Joe Leahy in São Paulo Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff is battling impeachment proceedings in the senate for manipulating public accounts. Most analysts however believe that her real crime, in the eyes of markets, industry and voters, was the murder of one of the world’s most promising economic growth stories. The irony then is that, even as the senate prepares for a vote on May 11 that is expected to open formally the impeachment trial and trigger her suspension as president, a faint pulse can be detected in her supposed victim: Brazil’s economy. Related article IMF says Brazil resilience bodes well for recovery post-crises Fund points to country’s ability to attract foreign direct investment despite political upheaval This will probably not be enough to save Ms Rousseff. But it could help her likely successor, Michel Temer, the vice-president who is expected to take charge of Latin America’s biggest economy if Ms Rousseff is impeached, with promises of policies to quickly return it to health. “The main question has been the political crisis,” says Ricardo Camargo Mendes, partner with Prospectiva, a consultancy. “If you resolve the political crisis, the economic recovery can happen.” Under Ms Rousseff’s watch, gross domestic product in Brazil sank from growth of 7.5 per cent in 2010, the year before she took office, to a contraction of 3.8 per cent last year — a total downward swing of more than 11 percentage points. The crash was wrought by the end of the commodities supercycle combined with policy errors, say analysts. These included trying to control prices and interest rates and attempting to stimulate the economy through ad hoc tax breaks and pumping up state bank credit. Mr Temer will inherit an economy in its worst recession in more than a century, with growth expected to be negative 3.8 per cent again this year, according to the International Monetary Fund. There is negative economic data in abundance with the national unemployment rate hitting 10.9 per cent at the endof March compared with 7.9 per cent a year earlier and bad loans in banks creeping higher. But some indicators, such as inflation expectations, are beginning to flash green again. Ms Rousseff last year appointed a hawkish finance minister, Joaquim Levy, to try to undo some of her errors. He removed price controls, leading to a one-off rise in inflation. The central bank countered by maintaining the benchmark Selic interest rate at a high of 14.25 per cent. While prices remain high, inflation expectations in a weekly survey of economists conducted by the central bank for the coming 12 months at 6.2 per cent have begun to fall back within the official target range of 4.5 per cent plus or minus 2 percentage points. Other key adjustments in the economy include a fall in the cost of labour. The huge demonstrations across Brazil and political machinations in Brasília have not made much headway in São Paulo’s slums The real, meanwhile, has depreciated from its highs of about R$1.60 to the dollar during the boom years of 2010-11 to more than R$4 at the height of the political crisis. While the currency has since strengthened slightly, the depreciation is helping to lower Brazil’s current account deficit and lift confidence in the country’s battered export sector. This and Brazil’s still strong foreign exchange reserves have helped maintain foreign direct investor interest, with external fund inflows in the first quarter of this year rising to $16.9bn, from $13.1bn a year earlier. Much of this interest is from multinationals and private equity either looking to increase market share or scouting for bargains, say analysts. “The worst of the crisis has already passed,” says Marcelo Costa, chief executive of Engebanc, a real estate consultancy. He says prices in the office market had fallen up to 60 per cent but did not expect the same bargains to be available in six months to a year. “We are seeing with the end of the political crisis that the economy will begin to grow again,” he says. Some economists say that if Mr Temer comes into office and is able to assemble a credible economic team, the virtuous circle could continue. Interest rates could begin to fall this year, investment pick up and public finances stabilise. But growth could remain elusive given the weakness of the economy and the strong budgetary tightening required, said Marcos Casarin of Oxford Economics. “A Temer-led government would be unlikely to deliver decent growth before the next presidential elections, currently scheduled for 2018,” he said in a report. With the long-term political stability of a Temer government also uncertain — he and other important members of his PMDB party have been linked to a sweeping corruption scandal at state-owned oil company Petrobras — investors will remain cautious about Brazil. “It’s going to take some time for Brazil to get through its issues,” Indra Nooyi, chairman and chief executive officer of PepsiCo, said in an analyst call this month. “Globally Brazil is one of the toughest economic situations today.” With additional reporting by Lindsay Whipp in Chicago Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2016. All rights reserved. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.