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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JD who wrote (4913)	12/29/1997 8:20:00 PM
From: JD	Respond to of 116763

Gold Outlook. S.J. Kaplan does a regular overview of the world of gold. Lots of interesting stats. Worth the read. geocities.com

To: JD who wrote (4913)	12/29/1997 11:22:00 PM
From: Albert V	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116763

Do you know where to find how many calls-puts central Banks have written on their gold reserves? Seems to me that since they know more than anyone where the price of gold is going since they control the price, finding out if there are any changes in the Call to Put ratio of options they write might be a valuable tool in determining the future performance of gold price. Even if we don't have the figures from the USA, maybe another Central bank publishes? Albert Velsen

To: JD who wrote (4913)	12/30/1997 10:53:00 AM
From: Jaakko	Respond to of 116763

<<lending gold to offset SOME of the costs of MAINTAINING its 3,700-tonne gold reserves but firmly denied any plans to sell part of its gold >> This is a rather hollow statement by the Bundesbank and a blatant excuse for lending gold!!!! It implies the maintenance cost is LARGER than the proceeds from lending ($70 million)!!!?? Give me break!!! If the bank hasn't sold any gold and doesn't intend to sell, what is it's MAINTENANCE cost???? The space in the vault taken up by 3,700 tons of gold is no more than a good size living room!!! Apart from typing up a monthly report (which doesn't change since they are NOT selling gold) what else is there in terms of MAINTENANCE costs???? The crux of the matter is that the Bundesbank (or any CB for that matter) is reluctant to admit that they are lending gold to offset SOME of the OPPORTUNITY cost of holding the gold (i.e. the forgone yield of T-bills as an alternative investment, $15 Billion in total by the 12 largest CB's)!! Ah haa!!! you say...but isn't there a risk in investing in T-bills????? Six months ago you would have laughed at this question...but now you are wondering whether Japan is trying to pass US T-bills under the table to the Saudis in exchange for oil (because they have $300-400 Billion of them and selling them in the open market would crush their price!!!) Currencies crumble!!! Look at the Russian ruble, on 94/03/30 it lost over 99% of its value against US$!! Talk about risk in PAPER currencies!!! How long can U.S import goods and pay with paper???? As long as their is CONFIDENCE in the dollar!!! When the confidence is gone, so is the dollar!!! It used to be (before 1972) that the CONFIDENCE was backed up by the gold the dollar was exchangable to at $37 an ounze. President Nixon did away with it...THERE NO LONGER IS ANY PROMISE TO CONVERT DOLLARS TO ANYTHING!!! NO NOTHING...NADA!!! YOU ARE ON YOUR OWN!!! You can stuff dollars in every pocket of yours, if that makes you happy BUT WHEN IT COMES THE TIME TO BUY SOMETHING REMEMBER, YOU WILL ONLY GET WHAT IT IS THAT YOU WANT TO BUY AT THAT MOMENT AT THAT PRICE (what ever the price is at that very split second!!!) WITH YOUR DOLLAR!!! The bottom line: The CB's don't want to be accountable for ANYTHING what they do!!! The least ... any comparison of investment alternatives on a risk/reward basis. The truth of the matter is: WHATEVER THEY DO APART FROM HOLDING GOLD FREE AND CLEAR IS A RISK THAT THE PUBLIC THEY REPRESENT CAN ILL AFFORD!!! Lending gold is the ultimate in stupidity and it is starting to dawn upon some of the CB's that they may NEVER see their gold again: 1) Gold producers who sell gold forward to make a marginal profit may go out of business when the cost of production soars. Although bullion banks are first affected, they can't hand over to CB's gold they don't have. 2) Gold mines can be taken over by force. 3) Some players that borrow physical gold and take delivery of same can walk away with the stuff and never return (cronies of Saddam Hussein e.g.) Their "purchase" price is their lease cost...!!!