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Gold/Mining/Energy : At a bottom now for gold? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (1028)	12/30/1997 6:04:00 PM
From: Bo Bob Brain	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1911

Don't be discouraged by todays activity in gold & silver. A major turning point may be developing in the gold market. Indicators are turning to the upside, and if silver can hold $6.00, we may see our first buying opportunity in the gold market in a number of months, early in 1998. The XAU, which is usually a pre cursor to what to expect in the gold market was up over 3 points today to 75.26, up nearly 4%. That could be the first spark in a longer term rally in the gold market. Time will tell. Gold down .90 at $291.60, silver closed at $6.185. Dec. expiration in the silver contract means very volatile trading sessions. Bonds held resistance at 119.28. A good pullback for another good buying opportunity. Consumer confidence data spooked bond traders, a bit over exaggerated. Possibly a drop down to 118. Stocks broke thru resistance to the upside despite the drop in bonds, outlook much improved. Will get a clearer of all markets on Monday when traders are back in full. Sorry for the short report, have to run. Have a wonderful New Year. Al

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (1028)	1/5/1998 5:12:00 PM
From: Bo Bob Brain	Respond to of 1911

Was looking for some strength last week as a confirmation that we have made a bottom in the gold market. Was hoping to buy gold if we saw some strength, letting the market make the decision for us. Nothing but weakness over the last four sessions. Greenspan's comments about deflation were negative. Overseas we saw investors liquidating their positions. Silver opened sharply lower and did come back off it's lows, but still below the $6.00 level which is worrysome. Gold and silver could come under some more pressure. Gold down $6.70 at $282.70. Mar. Silver down 3.2 cents at $5.923, Platinum down $3.60 at $362.40. Silver has been behaving completely differently than the other metals. It is quite a strange divergence. The last time this happened was right before gold rallied about $600 into the 1980 highs. All the evidence, sentiment, and technical analysis indicates that we are near some major historical low. No evidence yet to give a buy signal. Comments by Greenspan where he said that deflation is not a significant risk to the economy lit the fire under the bond market sending prices to all time highs. That was the first indication from the Fed that they are monitoring the possibility of the negative impact of a deflationary economy, like we are seeing right now in Japan, as closely as they are monitoring signs of inflation. If deflation becomes a preceived threat, the question will be about the timing of interest rate decreases to stimulate the economy. Declining interest rates means more gains in the bond market. Traders pushed bond prices thru the all time high shortly after the open, and kept on buying throughout the session. Bonds up 1 14/32 at 122 29/32.

To: Bobby Yellin who wrote (1028)	1/5/1998 8:36:00 PM
From: Bo Bob Brain	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1911

Alan update and continuation from last post. " The transplant went as well as could be expected. The lungs were nearly a perfect match. He was off his respirator within 24 hrs. but ran into problems on Monday. He was put back on the respirator and is reasonably ok. He was able to talk a little and understood everything. I will get his messages to him and check in for new ones. If things go well Al will be back in 3 or 4 weeks. Thank you for your concern." This was an e mail from Al's brother today. Foreign investors who want to join the bull market and our bonds have to convert their currencies to dollars. This is one of the factors that pushed the dollar sharply higher today, past the 100 level for the Mar. dollar index. The D Mark fell to it's lowest level since last August, the Yen to it's lowest level in over 5 years. Given the demand that we are seeing for our treasuries, especially out of Asia, the uncertainty surrounding the EMU, and the relative strength of our economy when compared to the rest of the world, look for dollar gains. Dollar index up 97 pts to 101.01, major currencies declined. The stock market started on a positive note, then traders focused on what went on in Asia last night. Hong Kong was down 3.5%, Nikkei down below 15,000. That is going to continue to put a drag on the stock market. Technical indicators turned up last week. The market was as low as the 7912 area and came back 50-60 pts from the lows. The S&P should head towards the 999.50 area, which was the previous high. That may be the fifth wave in the stock market. In the short term stocks should not be as strong as bonds. S&P up 2.2 at 986.90. Short term bias to the upside, we could make one more new high. But we have to be cautious - it could be a divergence high, meaning that the market goes to new highs but the technical indicators do not. That would be a big caution flag . No indication that we are anywhere near a bottom in the crude oil market. "The trend is your friend." OPEC is producing at the highest level in over 5 years, this is the seasonal time when the markets move lower, warm weather in the mid west and east has been depressing demand for heating oil. Prices gapped lower this morning leaving another barrier of strong resistance. Any rallies are viewed as selling opportunities. Crude down 54 cents per barrel at $16.89. heating oil down 1.49 at .4792.