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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HoodBuilder who wrote (4201)	12/29/1997 10:28:00 PM
From: Jay M. Harris	Respond to of 10921

Michael; glad to see you lurking for balance of perspective. I'm actually a huge semi bull on the long term prospects of one of the most fascinating industries to research. I do believe we will reach $300 billion in annual revenue by the year 2001 or 2002. My current bearish case is only a 6 month bearish case for equipment share prices. However, the decline can be very dramatic from current valuations. I'm trying to give the engineers among us an understanding of how to catch the bottom of the cycle. When we get to the bottom Michael, it will not be obvious as risk to equipment fundamentals is impossible to calculate when order deceleration gains momentum. This is similar to where we are today with great earnings reports and market participants still quite bullish. The cycle peak is clearly not obvious to many threaders. Please remember that I still have exposure to this group and I'm not one bit concerned about my current underperformance. In this business Michael, some years you get the bear and other years the bear gets you. The trick is to not get emotional and remain still, and you won't be eaten by the bear. Moreover, the odds are greatly stacked in the bull's favor that he will overcome the bear in the years ahead simply by being disciplined. This is proven by AMAT's 10 year return. Regards, Jay