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Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robohogs who wrote (370)	4/28/2016 2:12:21 AM
From: Robohogs	Respond to of 668

As a vol seller, being in this as date shifts is a homerun, if only I had gone in more aggressively. The other earnings strategy of buying strikes post earnings date and selling the week-before options would get killed on the shift. This is a calendar spread. I have been that guy! Selling the straddle may seem more aggressive, but given the risk vs. reward, I would argue you could sell the straddle and buy the strangle $1-3 inside the expected move on every liquid stock and come out ahead. Even with a SD move, receiving 75-80% of the width of the spread creates 3-4 to 1 reward over risk and allows minor profit given value of long strike ATM. It is impossible to milk max out of this but max loss does occur every 3-5 trades. One gain equal to max loss, or twice max loss, along with a bunch of 10-15% profits and modest losses makes this a winner over enough trades.

To: Robohogs who wrote (370)	4/28/2016 7:24:42 AM
From: Robohogs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 668

Wynn under pressure. My wide recommendation should be ok. Not sure on my tighter ones. Vols unexpectedly jumped into close. With no PR, compression day even if mkt vols move. VRX appears to have shifted its date too to next week although MW has an earnings preview out. Vols still say this week - doubtful to me given other issues. I remember seeing multiple sites with today as date. Only ine now. Rest say Nay 4 with one at May 5. I can say they PR the date 1-4 weeks in advance so may miss next week too. At 200% IV, 50% ABOVE next week (some may be due to Congressional testimony and some due to other announcements), I suspect 15% out of the money spreads may collapse today. Stock is looking to regain yday losses. A 50 vol crush halves the spreads by itself. Jon