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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pyslent who wrote (190062)	4/28/2016 1:35:58 PM
From: MGV	Respond to of 213182

It's unfortunate that the upgrade rate numbers that Cook cited all last year were meant to highlight how many more iPhone users were left to upgrade, but they also could have showed how extraordinarily fast users were upgrading to the 6. Some context would have helped make that point and properly set expectations for 2016. Agreed. I've often given Apple management credit for having access to superior market intelligence because of their vantage point. It isn't difficult to conclude that their intelligence was flawed or they didn't interpret it well. In the context of the demand pull through by the 6, the 6s didn't have enough to catalyze demand. Force touch is too dependent on app developers that leaves the impact inchoate. Beyond that, there wasn't much of any merit in the 6s over the 6 besides the A9. Upgrades need to have more influential features. In fairness to them, the global macro environment in key markets has worsened but, its difficult to argue that they didn't miscalculate on demand for the 6s/6s+. It is also getting more difficult to argue that they have had a reasonable level of urgency in improving: cloud services, video streaming, watch health related and communication services, siri, messaging, payment services (not just bill pay but peer to peer payments), and home kit and car play services. I'm sure the share price is affecting my patience but, there is a sense that Cook, Shiller, Ives, Ahrendts, and, maybe especially, Cue are fiddling while the shareholders are burning.

To: pyslent who wrote (190062)	4/28/2016 2:06:47 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213182

It's getting harder to believe that Cook would warn the Street if he saw anything worrisome, but he did cite Kantar data as evidence of iPhone loyalty. Yes, the data is US only, but the statement that "iPhone users are incredibly loyal" is meant to apply globally. Take it with a grain of salt given Cook's tendency towards optimism. I dont think that Cook/Apple saw anything worrisome, which is worse than them knowing and not telling investors. Everything points to the company preparing for record 6S sales followed by an incremental upgrade for the 7/7S. They didnt see this coming which makes it harder to trust the implications of their commentary on the upgrade rate for the 6S vs. the 5S. We simply dont know what will happen once the bulk of the base has upgraded to the 6 series. Will they upgrade again to the 7 in similar numbers to the 4 to 5 cycle? If that happens and then Apple releases a dramatically different iPhone 8 in 2017, we could be set up for a very nice 18 months....but I'm not sure that I am willing to count on that yet. Slacker