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To: StaggerLee who wrote (5231)	12/29/1997 11:08:00 PM
From: Mama Bear	Respond to of 27307

I don't really want to argue with a random walker. I also think that things have changed considerably in the last few years. As William H. is so fond of saying "The Internet changes everything". I can execute an order from my PC in less time than it would have taken me to dial my broker in 1977, or 1990 even. I have a live feed of the market dynamics. My transaction costs are considerably less, and can even be zero. My access to information is completly superior, and I'm able to netwrk with a group of people from across the country in the mIRC channel #daytraders. I wouldn't have been aware of NANX or RBOT without that. I don't care what the stuffed shirt MBA's teach. I've seen TA work enough to know that it's as silly to enter a position trade without it as it would be to not know the underlying fundamentals. In daytrading the funny mentals are totally unimportant, but I don't use much TA there either. I do not believe that virtually all of the short term traders substantially underperform the market. Barb!

To: StaggerLee who wrote (5231)	12/29/1997 11:12:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Respond to of 27307

...technical analysis is a fraud? Only if one represents it as having all the answers. Sure, Joe Granville thinks TA is all you need, but who listens to him? Most use it as a one tool among many, an indicator of investor sentiment or psychology. The fact that many investors, retail and professional, consider it when making investment/trading decisions tends to reinforce the signals derived from it. What kind of naive, closed-minded professors taught at your b-school? BTW, was that "5 year stretch" vs the S&P any five years or the last five. Remember, the last five or so have been the age of the index fund. With every 401k plan in the country dumping loads of cash into index funds, that the S&P would outperform actively managed funds was a self-fulfilling prophecy. Remember also that the index doesn't pay transaction costs or operating expenses. Bob

To: StaggerLee who wrote (5231)	12/29/1997 11:24:00 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Respond to of 27307

I use technical analysis extensively, it's been very helpful, and I've outperformed the S&P for years. >>Any idea what the correlation is between fund portfolio turnover and perfomance? (answer: hugely negative). That's not correct. The most successful technology funds have the highest turnover...200-300% per year. Fund managers have gotten a bad rap for the last three years for underperforming the S&P 500, because inflows have been so large. Imagine trying to outperform an index when you've been faced with fresh cash every day that has to be put to work. Fund managers started every day underperforming because they were holding cash. Additionally, the S&P has largely been futures-driven because it was the fastest way for hedge funds, pension funds and trading houses to get in and out, and any bottom-up manager is handicapped if he can't use futures. The same relationship between futures and the S&P is the reason that the index has outperformed the small-cap market, too. I don't know about the business school angle, but technical analysis would have gotten you out of the Japanese, Korean, and Hong Kong markets, as well as the US market this October. My flavor of technical analysis would be keeping you out today, also, though it's not entirely clear because many names have come right down to important support. We'll see.