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To: SE who wrote (6082)	12/30/1997 10:19:00 AM
From: DJB	Respond to of 10368

Scott, Excellent explanation - thanks!!! A happy and prosperous new year to all! Dennis

To: SE who wrote (6082)	12/30/1997 8:21:00 PM
From: Alan Cole	Respond to of 10368

Scott - thanks for a wonderful discussion. I had a broad sense of what TA meant, but not nuts and bolts. As I study what you wrote, if I were really serious about this, I wonder if I would make a graph that compounds not only the price of the stock, but the number of shares that transacted at that price. I'm not sure how I would configure such a multidimensional graph. There can be lots of shares sold in one day, or few shares sold in one week - that could be deceptive looking only at the duration at a given price - right? I have a friend who is a psychiatrist who also publishes an investment letter (interesting guy) - and he is publishing a book next month on the psychology of investing (also teaches a Harvard course on it). I'm going to talk it over with him, too, since a lot of what you seem to assume is the notion of selling at a point that you maintain your initial investment (maintain self-esteem), seek certain upside, etc. Again, thanks for your really good discussion.

To: SE who wrote (6082)	12/30/1997 9:59:00 PM
From: Pr-Ac Man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10368

I tend to think that 20% profit levels are signficiant, although this is my assumption and may be incorrect. Scott: I tend to agree. I work with a 20% target strategy. That is, I always buy a stock with a short-term goal of 20%. If the stock hits 20% and the pattern shows continued strength, then I will hold it longer term. If a stock doesn't approach 20% within about 2 months, I will generally sell it. I'm kind of a momentum player with a twist. But I do find, as you pointed out, that stocks often move in 20% (give or take) increments. I thought your observations regarding market psychology were very good. I am a strong believer that investor sentiment is the driving force behind a stock in a shorter term horizon (few weeks to few months). Although, in the long run fundamental strength always wins out. You just can't keep a good horse down forever (or a bad one up). PA P.S. - What's your prediction on the battle of the bays? I look for the Pack to prevail, but I think they may have a struggle. Tampa Bay has taken it on the chin twice this season, and I think they are playing with a great deal of emotion right now.