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To: Brumar89 who wrote (70060)5/16/2016 1:24:52 PM
From: Eric  Respond to of 86356
 
CO2 Nears Peak: Are We Permanently Above 400 PPM?

Published: May 16th, 2016

By Andrea Thompson

Just three years ago this month, the carbon dioxide monitoring station atop Hawaii’s Mauna Loa reached a significant milestone: the first measurement of CO2 concentrations that exceeded the benchmark of 400 parts per million (ppm). Now, they may never again dip below it.

As CO2 levels once again approach their annual apex, they have reached astonishing heights. Concentrations in recent weeks have edged close to 410 ppm, thanks in part to a push from an exceptionally strong El Niño.



Click image to enlarge.


But it is the emissions from human activities that are by far the main driver of the inexorable climb of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. That trend, in turn, is driving the steady rise of global temperatures, which have set record after record in recent months.

Those CO2 levels will soon begin to drop toward their annual minimum as spring triggers the collective inhale of trees and other plant life. But because of the remarkable heights reached this year, the fall minimum, unlike recent years, may not dip below the 400-ppm mark at Mauna Loa.

“I think we’re essentially over for good,” Ralph Keeling, the director of the Mauna Loa CO2 program at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, said.

And before too long, that will be the case the world over.

Steady Rise

Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are monitored at stations around the world, providing records of the mark humans are leaving on the planet. Keeling’s father, Charles Keeling, began the recordings at Mauna Loa in 1958, revealing not only the annual wiggles created by the seasonal growth and death of vegetation, but the steady rise in CO2 from year to year.

The resulting graph, dubbed the Keeling Curve in his honor, became an icon of climate science.



Click image to enlarge.


Back then, CO2 levels were around 315 ppm (already an increase from preindustrial levels of about 280 ppm), but they have grown steadily, first crossing the 400 ppm threshold in May 2013. The following year saw the first monthwith an average over that level. Last year, it was three months.

But in each of those years, concentrations dipped back below that level in the fall, but for a shorter and shorter length of time.

While the world’s plants need CO2 to function, they can only soak up so much, leaving behind an excess every year — an excess that slowly lifts both the annual maximum and minimum, just as a rising tide lifts all ships.

That yearly excess (recently about 2 ppm) traps ever more heat in the Earth’s atmosphere, which has raised global temperatures by 1.6°F (0.9°C) since the beginning of the 20th century. In recent months, those temperatures have neared 1.5°C (2.7°F) above those of the late 19th century — a milestone international negotiators are working to potentially avoid. Depending on how much emissions are reduced in the coming decades, the Earth could see another 3°F to 9°F (1.7°C to 5°C) of warming by the end of the century.

El Niño’s Boost

Last year, CO2 hit a weekly peak of about 404 ppm. If the trend had continued as normal, it likely would have been another couple years before year-round levels at Mauna Loa permanently rose above 400 ppm. But then came one of the strongest El Niños on record.

El Niño tends to lead to drought in the tropical regions of the planet, which can mean more wildfires and higher CO2 emissions. This El Niño helped cause a huge leap in CO2 levels compared to last year; over 2015, CO2 concentrations grew by 3.05 ppm, the largest jump on record.

It also marked the fourth consecutive year with a growth rate higher than 2 ppm — another hallmark of global warming is that the annual growth rate of CO2 is accelerating. At the beginning of the Keeling Curve record, the growth rate was only about 0.75 ppm.

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Currently, CO2 levels are about 4 ppm higher than this point last year, thanks in part to a particularly big jump in April. Keeling isn’t sure what the exact cause of that jump was, but said it was likely a high-CO2 air mass moving in from Southeast Asia.

Because of that jump, the highest weekly value recorded this year has been 408.6, in mid-April. Daily values reached even higher, closing in on 410 ppm.

Such April jumps are fairly typical, Keeling said, though May generally has a higher monthly average than April because it is more consistently high. (The peak in CO2 levels is also shifting earlier in May because of the longer growing season ushered in by higher global temperatures.)

Permanently Over 400 ppm?

As May turns to June, CO2 levels will come down from their fever pitch, and the question is: How low will they go? Will they dip below 400 ppm one more time, or are we now in an over-400 ppm world.

For his part, Keeling thinks the latter situation is the more likely.

“I think it’s pretty unlikely that Mauna Loa will dip below 400 ppm in the monthly or weekly” averages, he said. That is a sentiment he first expressed in a blog post back in October, when it was becoming clear how strong El Niño would be.

Pieter Tans, lead scientist of NOAA’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network, was more circumspect, saying it depends on how long the current 4-ppm rise from last year lasts into the summer.

Mauna Loa isn’t the only spot poised to move permanently above 400 ppm, though. The Cape Grim station in remote northwestern Tasmania is also set to go above 400 ppm within the next few weeks. Once it does, it will not dip below again, the scientists who maintain the site told the Sydney Morning Herald.

This is particularly significant because Cape Grim had yet to reach that mark, in part because the Southern Hemisphere has a less pronounced seasonal cycle than the Northern Hemisphere because it has more landmass and plant life. The majority of carbon dioxide emissions also come from the Northern Hemisphere and take about a year to spread across the equator.




This illustration shows the levels of carbon dioxide through a swath of the atmosphere over the Southern Hemisphere.

Click image to enlarge.
Credit: Eric Morgan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography

Keeling saw this process in action during an airborne mission run by the National Center for Atmospheric Research that measured CO2 levels throughout the depth of the Southern Hemisphere atmosphere in February. The measurements taken during that mission showed that even in some of the remotest reaches of the planet, near Antarctica, air masses had CO2 concentrations over 400 ppm. And those that didn’t were just barely under.

What this means is that “this is the last we'll see of sub-400 ppm CO2 in the Southern Hemisphere, unless we’re able to someday achieve negative emissions,” NCAR scientist Britton Stephens, co-lead principal investigator for the mission, said in a statement.

Keeling suspects that the only places on the globe that may see levels dip below 400 ppm this summer will be at the highest latitudes (which have higher seasonal swings). They could perhaps do so again next summer, but then the planet as a whole will be above 400 ppm for the foreseeable future.

And while that benchmark is somewhat symbolic — the excess heat trapped by 400 ppm versus 399 is small — it serves as an important psychological milestone, Keeling said, a way to mark just how much humans have emitted into the atmosphere.

And with levels this year already nearing 410 ppm, “you realize how fast this is all going,” he said.

Keeling is hopeful, though, that with the signing of the Paris agreement and signs of action to limit emissions by various national governments, the iconic rise of the Keeling Curve will start to plateau.

“If Paris is successful, this curve will look very different in a matter of five or 10 years because it will start to change,” he said “And I hope we see that.”

climatecentral.org

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To: Brumar89 who wrote (70060)5/16/2016 1:39:08 PM
From: Brumar891 Recommendation

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Ben Rhodes spins climate change

“Climate refugee” claims reflect deliberate mendacity and belief that we and reporters are stupid

Paul Driessen

Employing his college degree in fiction writing, White House communications strategist Ben Rhodes wrote deceitful talking points on the Benghazi attack and one-sided Iran nuclear deal – and later bragged about manipulating “clueless reporters.” Perhaps he’s also orchestrating administration climate spin.

Rising ocean tides will bring “waves of climate refugees” to America and Europe, President Obama has declared. “Environmental migrants” are already fleeing shrinking islands in the Pacific, and it is a “dereliction of duty” for military officers to “deny the reality” of dangerous manmade climate change.

Even if we act in accord with the Paris climate “accords” (none dare call it a treaty) and “can stem the increase” in global temperatures, Interior Secretary Sally Jewell insists, “very rapid” climate changes “are expected to force the relocation of hundreds of Alaskans from their homes.”

Manmade climate change is a “threat multiplier,” a Pentagon report asserts. It will “exacerbate” many of the challenges the United States faces today, including infectious diseases and terrorism, destructive extreme weather events, disputes over who has rights to dwindling land areas and basic resources like water and food, and intense disagreements over how to absorb millions of climate refugees.

Echo-chamber journalists disagree only over the identity of America’s first climate refugees: Alaskan Natives in Newtok being inundated by rising seas and melting ice and tundra – or 25 Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw families whose little island in the Mississippi Delta has been eroding away since 1950?

Not to be outdone, ultra-liberal radio talk show host Thom Hartmann told me, “You’ve got five million climate change refugees fleeing into Europe right now because of droughts in Syria.” When I called this nonsense and said they are trying to escape war and ISIS butchers who are beheading little children, for the tenth time in a ten-minute interview, he railed that I “should be in jail” as a “climate denier.”

Unfortunately for Rhodes & Company, inconvenient truths eviscerate manmade climate chaos claims.

Throughout Earth and human history, climate change has ranged from regional to hemispheric, from beneficial to harmful to destructive. It has included Roman and medieval warm periods, little ice ages, and five “mammoth” glacial epochs that buried continents under mile-high walls of ice. Natural climate change inflicted a Dust Bowl that sent millions of Americans scurrying in search of better lives, and decades- or centuries-long droughts that brought entire civilizations to their knees.

Roman, Mayan, Mesopotamian, Egyptian, Chinese and other cities and cultures prospered in warm periods and collapsed in cold and drought eras, climate historian Dennis Avery observes.
This happened “over and over, in a centuries-long rhythm of affluence followed by long success, followed by long and utter failure.” Entire cities in the eastern Mediterranean were abandoned for centuries.

Storm activity rose by 85% in the second half of the 16th century, during the Maunder Sunspot Minimum, while the incidence of severe storms increased four-fold, writes historian Brian Fagan. British Navy logbooks show more than twice as many major land-falling Caribbean hurricanes during the cold decades of the 1700’s as during the warm years of 1950–2000.

Little ice ages and extended droughts brought crop failures and mass starvation, Avery notes. Rome shrank from a million inhabitants in its heyday to barely 30,000 a century later. The Mayan civilization plunged from perhaps 15 million to one million, as its cities were abandoned in a century-long drought.

Climate mood swings in the past 50 years have been far less dramatic than in previous millennia. Few people will have to flee the tiny portion of future climate change that might be attributable to humans.

The Climate Crisis Consortium ignores these eons, millennia and centuries of natural climate change. It wants us to believe Earth’s climate was stable and benign until the Industrial Age – and humans can now control climate and weather merely by controlling carbon dioxide levels. It’s all Hollywood nonsense.

Oceans have risen 400 feet since the last ice age glaciers melted. Pacific islands rose with them, as corals expanded their habitats with every new inch of sea water. Seas are now rising at seven inches per century – and EPA’s anti-coal Clean Power Plan would prevent barely 0.01 inches of rise over the next 100 years.

Greenland’s icecap is shrinking because of subterranean magmatic activity – not global warming. Arctic regions have long experienced warming and cooling cycles, as recorded by Francis McClintock and other whalers and explorers, dating back some 300 years. Polar bear populations are at an all-time high: 25,000.

Antarctic ice masses continue to grow, and the continent’s average annual temperature of minus-55 F means it would have to warm by 88 degrees year-round for that ice to melt. Even Al Gore in his wildest rants doesn’t say that is likely. So his beachfront home is safe from the 20-foot sea rise he has predicted.

Meteorologist Anthony Watts concludes that the only reliable long-term surface record comes from 400 official US rural thermometer stations that were never corrupted by location changes, airport heat or urban growth. Those stations show no significant warming for the past 80 years. The “record warming” we keep hearing about comes from data that have been “adjusted” or “homogenized” (ie, manipulated) upward to conform to computer model projections, IPCC proclamations and White House press releases.

Other studies have concluded there has been no increase in the severity or frequency of thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes or winter blizzards for decades. Indeed, no Category 3-5 hurricane has struck the United States since October 2005 – a record lull that exceeds any hurricane hiatus since at least 1900
.

Malaria was common in the USA, Europe and even Siberia until the 1950s, when window screens, DDT and better medical practices wiped it out. It has nothing to do with global warming or climate change. Its continued prevalence is due to incompetent health ministries that refuse to learn from past successes.

The notion that a warmer world with more atmospheric CO2 will bring crop failures and famines is sheer delusion. Higher carbon dioxide levels are actually “greening” the planet and making crops, forests and grasslands grow faster and better. New hybrid and biotech seeds, combined with modern fertilizers and farming practices, are yielding bigger harvests, even during droughts, as India is proving right now.

There is no manmade climate crisis. Solar, galactic and oceanic cycles rule – not carbon dioxide. The biggest threat to agriculture and humans would come from another little ice age, not moderate warming.

In reality, the enormous amounts of energy packed into coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear fuels create the wealth, and power the wondrous technologies, that give us the greatest advantages mankind has ever enjoyed – to survive, adapt to and deal with climate changes and weather events.

The worst thing we could do is lock up that reliable, affordable, compact energy – and switch to expensive, heavily subsidized, wildly unpredictable wind and solar energy … and to biofuels that require millions of acres of land and billions of gallons of precious water.

Those who control energy control lives, livelihoods and living standards. Allowing climate alarmists and anti-energy zealots to dictate what energy sources we can use, and how much each of us is “permitted” to have, would put all of us at the mercy of their unaccountable whims, ideologies and fraudulent science.

Their callous policies are already killing millions of people every year in impoverished nations, by depriving them of the energy and technologies that we take for granted. Do we really want to be next? Shouldn’t we be helping the world’s poor take their rightful places among the healthy and prosperous?

The only “evidence” the alarmists have for a looming climate cataclysm are Al Gore movies, Mike Mann hockey sticks, computer “scenarios” that bear no resemblance to Real World events, and more spin and scare stories from White House novelist Ben Rhodes.

We need a president who will send the Paris climate treaty to the US Senate, where it can be properly vetted and rejected … overturn EPA and other regulations that are based on manipulated data and falsified pseudo-science … and lead the world back from the precipice of climate lunacy.

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