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To: Brumar89 who wrote (70127)5/19/2016 2:54:34 PM
From: Brumar89  Respond to of 86352
 
The Party of Scientism, Not Science

The gruesome history of left-wing scientific fakery.

May 19, 2016
Bruce Thornton

Good point. Socialism was conceived as a scientific approach to economics and social development. That socialist science is working out great in Venezuela today. Just as it has elsewhere over and over.


Bruce Thornton is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center.

In a commencement speech at Rutgers, President Obama took an indirect shot at Donald Trump and the Republicans:

Facts, evidence, reason, logic, an understanding of science: These are good things. These are qualities you want in people making policy . . . We traditionally have valued those things, but if you’re listening to today’s political debate, you might wonder where this strain of anti-intellectualism came from.

Obama here indulges one of the hoariest progressive clichés: that they are the party of enlightenment, reason, and fact, while conservatives are ignorant obscurantists, “bitter clingers” to the superstitions of religion and tradition. This prejudice is false about both conservatives and progressives. Most of what many progressives think is science is, in fact, scientism: the application of the methods, techniques, and jargon of genuine science to subjects for which they are inappropriate.

Indeed, leftism was born in scientism. Karl Marx believed that his ideas about the historical development, economics, and human nature comprised “scientific socialism,” as true as the laws of natural science. As Friedrich Engels said at Marx’s funeral, “Just as Darwin had discovered the law of development of organic nature, so did Marx discover the laws of human history.” Of course Marxism is no such thing. It is a reductive view of human nature and action, based on selective evidence, unexamined assumptions, and jargon modeled on real science.

As we now know, Marxism is in fact a political religion based on faith more than reason. It identifies the good (the proletariat and the intellectual left) and the evil (capitalists and petty bourgeois); promises an earthly paradise (a society of equality and justice without private property); and provides a totalizing narrative that explains everything (historical progress driven by the struggle for control of the means of production). And despite its bloody failure, a Marxism dressed up as “democratic socialism” still attracts leftists like Bernie Sanders who fancy themselves thinkers of cool reason and empirical evidence.

Or take eugenics, an expression of progressivist ideology that dominated American social policy from around 1900 until the Second World War. The most prestigious universities and professors in the country preached eugenics and the “scientific racism” on which it was based. Its authority came from Darwinism and its theory that natural selection favored the fit, including humans. As Darwin said in The Descent of Man, “At some future period . . . the civilized races of man will almost certainly exterminate, and replace, the savage races throughout the world.” Calling on Darwinian ideas, Margaret Sanger created Planned Parenthood in part to keep the “less fit” races from overbreeding and hence overwhelming the “more fit” Anglo-Saxon and Nordic races. For the same reason, state governments passed forced sterilization laws upheld by the Supreme Court in the 1927 decision Buck v. Bell. Of course it was all scientism, fake science based on biased observation, the confusion of culture with nature, and quantitative silliness like measuring skulls.

Yet eugenics was the “settled science” of its time, and as such justified illiberal and cruel policies like forced sterilization, race- and ethnic-based immigration restrictions, and Jim Crow segregation. It took the horrors of the Holocaust to discredit, at least publicly, these ideas. But we still see remnants of the logic of eugenics, like the idea that abortion reduces crime rates. This idea surfaced in 1972 and was popularized by the 2010 best-seller Freakonomics. We heard its echo in Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg’s comment that thanks to Roe v. Wade, we can eliminate “populations we don’t want to have too many of.”

Then there’s Freudian psychology, discredited as a science only after real science began discovering the biochemical causes of many neuroses and mental disorders. Sigmund Freud also thought he was a scientist who had discovered the material bases of mental phenomena. The ideas that came from this claim, such as “repression” and the Oedipus Complex, were received as scientific discoveries akin to the heliocentric planetary system and Newton’s law of gravity. That prestige facilitated the incredible influence Freudian thought held, and still holds, over a Western culture that had abandoned traditional religion yet still yearned for a substitute to make sense of people’s lives. But Freud’s “discoveries” are not the fruit of science. They are quasi-mythic ideas made up by Freud and buttressed with his subjective observations of his patients. Freud was a culture critic, not a scientist, promoting an explanatory narrative about human behavior, and liberation from the old religious taboos and superstitions that create our unhappiness.

There are other abuses of science, however, that are just as mischievous. Science that strays beyond the limits of what it has established as scientifically true can resemble pseudo-science. Much of the breathless reporting of popular science about how the mind works basically makes mountains of certainty out of molehills of research that uses fMRI scans to measure blood flow in the brain. More careful scientists call this the “higher phrenology.” The fad of identifying a gene as the determiner of behaviors like drinking, promiscuity, and even shopping only began to fade after further research showed that genes interact in much more complex and intricate combinations.

But there is no greater example of this bad habit than the claims that global warming is caused by human-produced atmospheric CO2. The crude causal link between CO2 and increased warming, a hypothesis over a hundred years old, is too simplistic to account for global climate change unfolding over millions of years. It cannot explain contrary evidence, such as the now two-decades-old pause in warming that has been going on even as people continue to add billions of tons of CO2 to the atmosphere. Gaps in understanding are filled by computer simulations compromised by the self-interested need of researchers to generate the results that confirm their lucrative climate model. Yet despite these problems, governments all over the world continue to speak of “settled science” and a “scientific consensus,” two phrases that cut against the skeptical grain of real science.

So what do all these examples have in common? They have been embraced to a greater or lesser degree by most progressives and liberals, the people like Obama who pride themselves on their belief in “facts, evidence, reason, logic, an understanding of science,” as he told the cheering audience at Rutgers. Progressives argue they are more fit to rule because they rely on these habits of thinking when they make “policy.” Thus they display the misplaced progressive faith in technocratic elites who armed with knowledge from the new “human sciences,” will avoid the self-interest, superstition, religious dogma, and fossilized traditions that conservatives supposedly base their policies on.

But this faith in “techno-politics” in the end serves un-scientific ideology, self-interest, ambition, and the power to boss other people around and run their lives, all dressed up in the prestige and authority of real science. Nothing exposes this progressive sham more than the current attempt by Democrat Congressmen and state Attorneys General to use government and judicial power to investigate and punish writers and researchers who exercise their freedom to question “scientific” claims about catastrophic anthropogenic global warming. That is, these proponents of reason and science want to attack the public skepticism upon which modern science is founded. Such illiberal obscurantism is the hallmark of scientism.

To paraphrase British Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin, science is to scientism what a gentleman is to a gent. As the gruesome history of communism, eugenics, and other pseudo-scientific ideologies teach, we should never confuse a pretender with the real thing.

http://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/262898/party-scientism-not-science-bruce-thornton



To: Brumar89 who wrote (70127)5/20/2016 10:47:00 AM
From: Eric  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 86352
 
A Global Warming 101 Chat With Climate Scientist Scott Denning

May 18, 2016

By Mike Nelson

Professor Scott Denning at Colorado State University is an atmospheric scientist and climate expert. He does an excellent job of taking complex subjects and breaking them down to explain the science in an easy to understand manner — no small feat!

I recently asked him to address some of the basics of the greenhouse effect and global warming.

Mike Nelson: Professor Denning, is the greenhouse effect and global warming something new, just in the past few decades?

Scott Denning: The greenhouse analogy is not new, it was first used by Joseph Fourier in the 1820s.

The absorption spectrum of carbon dioxide (CO2) was first measured by John Tyndall who also explained the role of CO2 in climate change in the 1860s.

The “degrees of warming per doubling of CO2” (logarithmic relationship) was first measured by Svante Arrhenius in the 1890’s. He also published his expectation that burning coal would cause global warming in 1896.

The increase in trapped heat from increased CO2 (3.7 Watts per square meter per doubling of CO2) is a 21st century number, based on the latest lab spectroscopy, satellite radiometry, and radiative transfer calculations.



Credit: United States Environmental Protection Agency

Nelson: So, Arrhenius had this figured out nearly a century before global warming became a major news topic?

Denning: Yes, qualitatively this number is the same as Arrhenius, but he could never have calculated this so precisely.

So if you want to be precise, we have known about the role of CO2 absorption in warming based on lab measurements for 150 years, and we have known about the linear warming per doubling of CO2 for 120 years, but we’ve only had really precise data on the sensitivity of climate to CO2 in recent decades

Nelson: A quick clarification if you would not mind. So when we went from 1 ppm to 2 parts per million (ppm) of CO2, the heat retention increased 3.7 Watts per meter squared (W/m2) — the same for 2 ppm to 4 ppm, 4 to 8, etc. Now that we are at 400 ppm, it will take us up to 800 ppm for get the same effect, correct.

Denning: This is basically correct. Certainly 200 to 400 is the same as 400 to 800, 3.7 W/m2 based on best estimates. I’m not sure you can go all the way down to 1 to 2 or 2 to 4. The formula is dQ = 3.7 W/m2 * log(C2/C1)/log(2). I’m just not sure it can be extrapolated to such extremely low concentrations. But it hardly matters since the CO2 has never been that low.



Credit: United States Environmental Protection Agency

Nelson: We know that positive feedbacks (increasing the warming) kick in such as the melting of the northern ice cap, increased water vapor, methane release due to melting permafrost. Are there negative feedbacks that counter this to any great degree?/strong>

Denning: The 3.7 W/m2 is from CO2 alone. Without feedbacks this would warm the Earth only 1.1°C (2°F).

The actual climate sensitivity is determined after this initial change (0.27°C per W/m2) gets amplified by positive feedbacks and also reduced by negative feedbacks.

Nelson: How do we know these feedbacks exist?

Denning: We know there must be negative feedbacks because Earth has almost always had liquid water throughout geologic time (oceans never froze solid or boiled away).

We know there must be positive feedbacks because climate has changed in the past even with very small changes to the radiation balance.

Nelson: What are some of the most important feedbacks?

Denning: The most important positive feedbacks are:

Water vapor (warmer oceans increase evaporation, water vapor is a powerful GHG)

Ice and snow albedo (melting snow increases absorption of solar radiation)

High clouds (extra water vapor condenses to make high clouds that let sun in but block outgoing LW (longwave radiation) )

The most important negative feedbacks are:

Increased radiative cooling (Stefan-Boltzmann relationship, OLR = sigma * T^4) Do not worry, you won’t be tested!

Surface warming and extra moisture promote convective clouds that transport heat to upper troposphere where it can be more efficiently radiated to space

Low clouds (extra water vapor condenses to make low clouds that block sun but emit a lot of longwave (Earth) radiation upward because they’re warm — near the ground)

Nelson: What are the most difficult challenges in understanding the various feedbacks?

Denning: The hardest ones to quantify are clouds, because low clouds cool the climate but high clouds warm the climate. All clouds have conflicting effects on surface temperatures. They reflect sunlight (shortwave radiation) to space so cool the surface. In the longwave radiation, they emit to space at a temperature that’s colder than the surface, so act to retain heat.

Low clouds are loaded with liquid water droplets so they are very bright when seen from above, but because they are low they are relatively warm so they emit almost as much longwave radiation up as the surface. Therefore low clouds act to cool the climate.

Nelson: What impact do mid and high level clouds have on our climate?

Denning: High clouds (think cirrus or cirro-stratus or even altostratus) have much less liquid water or are made entirely of ice. Thin, diaphanous clouds let most of the sunlight right through. But in the longwave they are almost perfect blackbodies (good at radiating heat).

They emit to space at very cold upper tropospheric temperatures, so the Earth loses much less energy to space than if the surface could emit directly. Therefore the longwave effect “wins” and high clouds act to warm the climate.

Nelson: Are we very good at modeling clouds in terms of climate change?

Denning: Predicting the net effect of changes in clouds in a warming climate depend very sensitively on what kinds of clouds form from all that extra water vapor that evaporates from the warmer oceans.

Feedbacks are complicated. We can’t just decide what will happen based on simple logical arguments. We need to either crank through the brutal arithmetic of full-blown climate models, or look at the total climate sensitivity by studying past climate change.

Nelson: So do the climate models and past climate studies agree?

Denning: Luckily, these two independent lines of research lead to nearly identical conclusions: overall climate sensitivity of about 0.8 degree Celsius per Watt/m2 of extra radiation. In other words, about 3 Celsius global warming per doubling of CO2.

Nelson: What are your thoughts on a tipping point. I hear that mentioned by author Bill McKibben. He talks of 350 ppm, is it already too late?

Denning: There are certainly potential tipping points: for example the rapid collapse of ice sheets, melting permafrost, die-back of tropical forests, shutdown of thermohaline circulation. Any of these would make the climate warm much more than predicted by paleo data or climate models. There may be others that we haven’t thought about.

Nelson: Thank you for all of the physical science, do you have thoughts on the political science of global warming?

Denning: In my opinion many of the problems of rapid global warming are probably avoidable if we adopt ambitious measures to develop non-carbon energy before China, India, and Africa emerge as major energy users in coming decades.

Certainly the likelihood of getting bitten by one or more of these tipping points is far greater the longer we wait to deploy solutions.

In my opinion both the 350 ppm goal and the “it’s too late” argument are self-defeating. 450 ppm is better than 500 ppm, and 500 ppm is better than 1000 ppm. It’s never too late to stop making it worse!

Professor Denning, thank you for your time!

wxshift.com

My comments:

Models are absolutely necessary.

Without them weather forecasting for example would not be as accurate as they are today.

Eric