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Politics : Politics of Energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric who wrote (70434)	6/7/2016 5:53:42 AM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Recommended By teevee Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86350

<I do find it funny that some oilmen think that FF's will last almost forever. > They will last forever, as per Sheik Yamani's comment about the end of the stone age not ending for lack of stones. Have you checked the amount of thick goop in Venezuela? It's hundreds of years quantity. Peak People will be in 2037 so that will limit the amount of carbon wanted. But there will also be continued technology changes so people will want less per person. We oil men know that people prefer to NOT buy hydrocarbons. They are always looking for a way to reduce payments to the Seven Sisters. They have been highly successful, with engine oil changes every 10,000 km with hardly any used between changes. The good old days of getting a pint of oil with a tank of petrol are long long gone. Nobody gets their suspension and steering greased. Wheel bearings go for decades without a change of grease. FFs will last for centuries. Much longer than the silly Baby Boomer fossils. Mqurice

To: Eric who wrote (70434)	6/8/2016 3:39:09 PM
From: Maurice Winn	2 Recommendations Recommended By Thomas A Watson TimF Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 86350

You don't understand economic Eric: <I do find it funny that some oilmen think that FF's will last almost forever. Almost a 400% increase in capex in oil production spending the last fifteen years just to maintain flat production in the world. Not good... So shortsighted. > I have never come across somebody who thinks coal, oil, gas, tars would last forever. It's plain to anyone above simpleton level that they are limited resources with varying accessibility and utility. But people often get confused about the meaning of reserves and other jargon. It's not short-sighted to use the cheapest options first. The reason people are continuing to buy cars that use gasoline is not because they haven't heard of Teslas but they make an economic judgment that they'll get a better deal out of the gasoline car while they own it. I have just replaced the brake master cylinder in my good old Camry. It's nice not having to pump up the brakes to get both sets of brakes working. It cost me NZ$260 to get it done. Lots of tax in that amount so it's mostly a donation to governments - to pay that I had to earn NZ$500 and then the business immediately pays about a third of it in tax [GST and income tax less expenses]. In the good old days I would have pulled it apart and either fixed or replaced the little bit that needed replacing. One gets profligate in one's dotage when one has money. Anyway, decades ago I imagined my lovely little TTTT with regeneratve braking so I wouldn't have to put up with such problems yet here I still am with brake fluid and moving parts blighting my life. A year ago I bought brake pads for the front and had them installed [normally my brother and I would have done that but one gets lazy and on the spot the business offered to do the job at a price I couldn't resist]. I just filled it with 62 litres of BP Ultimate which lasts only about 620 kilometres. I haven't checked, but I guess I could buy grid electricity off-peak cheaper than the NZ$200 I paid for petrol. These are economic decisions Eric. A swishy new Tesla would be fun to buy. In fact a man I know bought one, being Ray Stark for whom my brother in law acts as chief pilot in Ray's hobby "airline" of Cessna 172s. Ray bought a crusty old Honda CRV from me last year for $1,800 as a company car to park at Ardmore airport to tootle around town. His Tesla cost him a LOT more than that. It's economics Eric. His Tesla is his rich man's play car for fun. The Honda CRV is a cheap vehicle which can carry cargo and people on local journeys. I could buy a Tesla but the Honda CRV was good for a few weeks for our London daughter's family to use when they visited. The maintenance and cleaning wasn't too difficult. As the price of petrol rises or environmental fanaticism becomes too much to bear, then economics will push people towards TTTT SSSS Halo Ubercars. 400% increase in capex isn't much - that would make it $40 a barrel. Which is where oil is. In 1999 oil was low again. Another 400% increase in capex still wouldn't be enough to finish off gasoline and certainly not jet fuel. It's gong to be a long time before my wonderful A380 gets the fuel tanks replaced with lead-acid batteries. Maybe a capacitor might be used but lightning strikes inside the aircraft might make those problematic until the bugs are overcome. Meanwhile, the good old Camry continues in service with low annual costs. Imagine if I crash it = no worries. If I bend a new Tesla and especially if I pranged it into another new Tesla - the damage would in $$$ hundreds of thousands. A couple of us Camry guys meeting by accident would be no problem. In fact a guy did crash into the back of the Camry and put a dent in it a few years ago. No biggie. He made a mistake. Read some economics Eric. There are some simple books available to get the basics. I know you are from a rich family so have little intuitive childhood grasp of economics but as I say, one doesn't need to be or do something to develop some understanding. For example, I have never bolted some photovoltaics to a roof, but I can understand fairly well how the process should be designed and how it should b done. It's the same with economics, although you haven't learned about it, you can do so theoretically. It's called book learnin'. An old tradition. Mqurice